Non-Linear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones: A Bumpy Road towards a Honeymoon - Some Evidence from the ERM, ERM2 and Selected New EU Member States
AbstractThis study investigates exchange rate movements in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) and in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM-II). On the basis of the variant of the target zone model proposed by Bartolini and Prati (1999) and Bessec (2003), we set up a three-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive model (SETAR) with a non-stationary central band and explicit modelling of the conditional variance. This modelling framework is employed to model daily DM-based and median currency-based bilateral exchange rates of countries participating in the original ERM and also for exchange rates of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia from 1999 to 2004. Our results confirm the presence of strong non-linearities and asymmetries in the ERM period, which, however, seem to differ across countries and diminish during the last stage of the run-up to the euro. Important non-linear adjustments are also detected for Denmark in ERM-2 and for our group of four CEE economies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1511.
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
target zone; ERM; non-linearity; SETAR;
Other versions of this item:
- Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones: A Bumpy Road Towards A Honeymoon Some Evidence from the ERM, ERM2 and Selected New EU Member States," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp771, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-08-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2005-08-13 (European Economics)
- NEP-FIN-2005-08-13 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2005-08-13 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MON-2005-08-13 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Ploeg, F. van der, 1993.
"Intramarginal interventions, bands and the pattern of EMS exchange rate distributions,"
1993-48, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Beetsma, Roel M W J & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1994. "Intramarginal Interventions, Bands and the Pattern of EMS Exchange Rate Distributions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 583-602, August.
- Bekaert, G.R.J. & Gray, S.F., 1997.
"Target zones and exchange rates: An empirical investigation,"
1997-22, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1999. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1990.
"Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
421, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Miller M. & Weller, P., 1990. "Exchange Rate Bands With Price Inertia," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 337, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 2000.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Krugman, Paul R, 1991.
"Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
- Ronald Macdonald, 1995.
"Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 437-489, September.
- Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling - A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
- Timo Terasvirta, 2004.
"A Time Series Model for an Exchange Rate in a Target Zone with Applications,"
Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings
340, Econometric Society.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 579-609.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2003. "A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 533, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992.
"Target Zones and Realignments,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June.
- Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: Some evidence from the ERM," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1493-1523, September.
- Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997.
"Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
381, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Chung, Chae-Shick & Tauchen, George, 2001. "Testing Target-Zone Models Using Efficient Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 255-69, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Tristani, Oreste, 1994. " Variable Probability of Realignment in a Target Zone," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 1-14.
- Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991.
"An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
- Donald J. Mathieson & Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," IMF Working Papers 91/15, International Monetary Fund.
- Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," NBER Working Papers 3543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The width of the band and exchange rate mean-reversion: some further ERM-based results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 411-428.
- Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1991.
"Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey,"
IMF Working Papers
91/62, International Monetary Fund.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Weeks, M., 1999. "Non-nested Hypothesis Testing: An Overview," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9918, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Kempa, Bernd & Nelles, Michael, 1999. " The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 173-210, April.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
- Serrat, Angel, 2000. "Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Multilateral Target Zone," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 193-211, January.
- Beine, Michel & Grauwe, Paul De & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2009.
"The impact of FX central bank intervention in a noise trading framework,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1187-1195, July.
- Michel Beine & Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2008. "The impact of FX Central Bank Intervention in a Noise Trading Framework," CREA Discussion Paper Series 08-15, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
- Beine, M. & De Grauwe, Paul, 2009. "The impact of FX Central Bank intervention in a noise trading framework," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/234432, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Michel Beine & Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "The Impact of FX Central Bank Intervention in a Noise Trading Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 1520, CESifo Group Munich.
- Beine, M & De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, M, 2005. "The impact of FX Central Bank intervention in a noise trading framework," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/120954, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2005.
"Non-Linearities in the Relation between the Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1561, CESifo Group Munich.
- Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Non-linearities in the relation between the exchange rate and its fundamentals," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-21.
- Altavilla, C & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Non-linearities in the relation between the exchange rate and its fundamentals," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/120956, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Jes�s Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2007.
"The Optimal Degree of Exchange Rate Flexibility: a Target Zone Approach,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 803-822, 09.
- Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2006. "The optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility: A target zone approach," Working Papers 06.22, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
- Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Rybinski, Krzysztof, 2006.
"Implications of ERM2 for Poland's monetary policy,"
Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 346-365, December.
- Miller, J. Isaac, 2011. "Testing the bounds: Empirical behavior of target zone fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1782-1792, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.