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Variable Probability of Realignment in a Target Zone

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  • Tristani, Oreste

Abstract

The target zone model presented here encompasses a realignment probability that increases as the fundamental deviates from the center of the zone. The analysis is carried out for cases where the fundamental follows either a Brownian motion or an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The simplest version of the model yields tractable results, which prove to be robust when its most restrictive assumption is relaxed. The solution obtained is dubbed the steeper S, in accordance with its most relevant feature. Copyright 1994 by The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 96 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-14

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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:96:y:1994:i:1:p:1-14

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Web page: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-9442

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Cited by:
  1. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2004:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Bessec, Marie, 2003. "Mean-reversion vs. adjustment to PPP: the two regimes of exchange rate dynamics under the EMS, 1979-1998," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 141-164, January.
  3. Lai, Ching-chong & Fang, Chung-rou & Chang, Juin-jen, 2008. "Volatility trade-offs in exchange rate target zones," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 366-379.
  4. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones: A Bumpy Road Towards A Honeymoon Some Evidence from the ERM, ERM2 and Selected New EU Member States," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp771, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  5. Lucjan Orlowski & Krzyzstof Rybinski, 2005. "Implications of ERM2 for Poland’s Monetary Policy," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp802, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  6. Cornell, Christopher M., 2003. "Target zones, reserve crises, and inverted S-curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 313-323, October.
  7. Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2009. "Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone--A heterogeneous expectations approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 329-344, February.
  8. Kempa, Bernd & Nelles, Michael, 1999. "Nonfundamental FX trading and excess volatility in credible target zones Theory and empirical evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-70, January.
  9. Marie Bessec, 2000. "Mean-Reversion versus PPP Adjustment: The Two Regimes of Exchange Rate Dynamics Under the EMS, 1979-1998," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1305, Econometric Society.
  10. Lai, Ching-chong & Fang, Chung-rou, 2012. "Is the honeymoon effect valid in the presence of both exchange rate and output expectations? A graphical analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 140-146.
  11. Kempa, Bernd & Nelles, Michael, 1998. "On the Viability of Exchange Rate Target Zones in a Mundell-Fleming Model with Stochastic Output Shocks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 603-619, October.
  12. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 2006. "Target zones for exchange rates and policy changes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 912-931, October.
  13. Campos, M. Isabel & Herrera, Julio & Jimenez-Ridruejo, Zenon, 1999. "Censured Exchange Rates in a Discrete Time Target Zones Model: The Spanish Peseta/Deutsche Mark Case," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa183, European Regional Science Association.
  14. M. Isabel Campos & Zenon Jimenez-Ridruejo, 2003. "Were the peseta exchange rate crises forecastable during target zone period?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1087-1099.
  15. M. Isabel Campos & Zenón Jiménez-Ridruejo, . "Were the Peseta Exchange Rate Crises Forecastable During Target Zone Period?," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 00-07, FEDEA.
  16. Mark P. Taylor & Stefan Reitz, 2013. "Exchange Rates in Target Zones - Evidence from the Danish Krone," Kiel Working Papers 1827, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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