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The Allocation of Talent over the Business Cycle and its Effect on Sectoral Productivity

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  • Michael Boehm
  • Martin Watzinger

Abstract

It is well documented that graduates enter different occupations in recessions than in booms. In this article, we examine the impact of this reallocation for long-term productivity and output across sectors. We develop a model in which talent flows to stable sectors in recessions and to cyclical sectors in booms. We find evidence for the predicted change in productivity caused by the business cycle in a setting where output can be readily measured: economists starting or graduating from their PhD in a recession are significantly more productive over the long term than economists starting or graduating in a boom.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp1143.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1143

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Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP

Related research

Keywords: Talent allocation; sectoral productivity; business cycle; roy model; PhDeconomists;

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References

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  1. Oddbjørn Raaum & Knut Røed, 2006. "Do Business Cycle Conditions at the Time of Labor Market Entry Affect Future Employment Prospects?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 193-210, May.
  2. George J. Borjas & Kirk B. Doran, 2012. "The Collapse of the Soviet Union and the Productivity of American Mathematicians," NBER Working Papers 17800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Philipp Kircher & Iourii Manovski & Fane Nadja Groes, 2009. "The U-Shapes of Occupational Mobility," 2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 26, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
  5. Yuji Genda & Ayako Kondo & Souichi Ohta, 2010. "Long-Term Effects of a Recession at Labor Market Entry in Japan and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(1).
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The impact of recessions on economist productivity
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-05-22 14:14:00
  2. [??]??????????????????
    by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2012-05-24 07:00:00
  3. PhDs in gloomy times
    by Inaki Villanueva in Applied economist on 2012-07-24 18:08:00
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Cited by:
  1. John P. Conley & Ali Sina Onder & Benno Torgler, 2013. "Are all High-Skilled Cohorts Created Equal? Unemployment, Gender, and Research Productivity," QuBE Working Papers, QUT Business School 006, QUT Business School.

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