A Model of West African Millet Prices in Rural Markets
AbstractIn this article we specify a model of millet prices in the three West African countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Using data obtained from USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) we present a unique regional cereal price forecasting model that takes advantage of the panel nature of our data, and accounts for the flow of millet across markets. Another novel aspect of our analysis is our use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to detect and control for variation in conditions for productivity. The average absolute out-of-sample prediction error for 4-month-ahead millet prices is about 20 %.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich in its series CEPE Working paper series with number 09-69.
Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Millet; cereal; West Africa; price forecasting; remote sensing; NDVI; regional panel data;
Other versions of this item:
- Brown, Molly & Higgins, Nathaniel & Hintermann, Beat, 2013. "A Model of West African Millet Prices in Rural Markets," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150714, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
- O18 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
- Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
- R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Production and Pricing Analysis
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