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A Model of West African Millet Prices in Rural Markets

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Author Info

  • Molly E. Brown

    (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA)

  • Nathaniel Higgins

    (University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA)

  • Beat Hintermann

    ()
    (Center for Energy Policy and Economics CEPE, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract

In this article we specify a model of millet prices in the three West African countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Using data obtained from USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) we present a unique regional cereal price forecasting model that takes advantage of the panel nature of our data, and accounts for the flow of millet across markets. Another novel aspect of our analysis is our use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to detect and control for variation in conditions for productivity. The average absolute out-of-sample prediction error for 4-month-ahead millet prices is about 20 %.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich in its series CEPE Working paper series with number 09-69.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cee:wpcepe:09-69

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Related research

Keywords: Millet; cereal; West Africa; price forecasting; remote sensing; NDVI; regional panel data;

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References

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  1. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  2. Dorosh, Paul A. & Subran, Ludovic, 2009. "Food Aid, External Trade and Domestic Markets: Implications for Food Security in Darfur," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51453, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May.
  4. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  5. Bryceson, Deborah Fahy, 2002. "The Scramble in Africa: Reorienting Rural Livelihoods," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 725-739, May.
  6. Abdulai, Awudu & CroleRees, Anna, 2001. "Determinants of income diversification amongst rural households in Southern Mali," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 437-452, August.
  7. Dembele, Niama Nango & Staatz, John M., 1999. "The Response Of Cereals Traders To Agricultural Market Reform In Mali," Staff Papers 11476, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Essam, Timothy M., 2012. "Using Satellite-Based Remote Sensing Data to Assess Millet Price Regimes and Market Performance in Niger," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124654, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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