Modeling the Components of Market Discipline
AbstractThis paper evaluates the role of inflation-forecast heterogeneity in US monetary policy making. The deviation between private and central bank inflation forecasts is identified as a factor increasing inflation persistence and thus calling for a policy reaction. An optimal policy rule is derived by the minimization under discretion of a standard central bank loss function subject to a Phillips curve, modified to include the forecast deviation, and a forward-looking aggregate demand equation. This rule, which itself includes the forecast deviation as an additional argument, is estimated for the period 1974-1998, covering the Chairmanships of Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan, by using real-time forecasts of inflation and the output gap obtained from the FOMC’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The estimated rule remains remarkably stable over the whole sample period, challenging the conventional view of a structural break following Volcker’s appointment as Chairman of the Fed. Finally, the substantial decline in the significance of the interest-rate smoothing term in the rule indicates that monetary policy inertia may, to a large extent, be an artifact of serially correlated inflation-forecast errors that feed into policy decisions in real time.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 36.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Market discipline; transparency; bank risk;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-11-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-11-18 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2006-11-18 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2006-11-18 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arnoud W. A. Boot & Anjan V. Thakor, 1998.
"The Many Faces of Information Disclosure,"
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
80, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Sironi, Andrea, 2003.
" Testing for Market Discipline in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Subordinated Debt Issues,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 443-72, June.
- Andrea Sironi, 2000. "Testing for market discipline in the European banking industry: evidence from subordinated debt issues," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Tito Cordella, 1997.
"Public Disclosure and Bank Failures,"
IMF Working Papers
97/96, International Monetary Fund.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002.
"Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility,"
Working Paper Series
0150, European Central Bank.
- Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
- Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000.
"Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-67, August.
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 1998. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ursel Baumann & Erlend Nier, 2004. "Disclosure, volatility, and transparency: and empirical investigation into the value of bank disclosure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 31-45.
- Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Disclosures and Asset Returns," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 105-133, January.
- Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
- Ari Hyytinen & Tuomas Takalo, 2004.
"Preventing Systemic Crises through Bank Transparency,"
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(2), pages 257-273, 07.
- Hyytinen, Ari & Takalo, Tuomas, 2003. "Preventing systemic crises through bank transparency," Research Discussion Papers 25/2003, Bank of Finland.
- Hyytinen, Ari & Takalo, Tuomas, 2001. "Preventing Systemic Crises through Bank Transparency," Discussion Papers 776, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
- Herring, Richard J., 2004. "The subordinated debt alternative to Basel II," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 137-155, December.
- Jordan, John S. & Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S., 2000. "The Market Reaction to the Disclosure of Supervisory Actions: Implications for Bank Transparency," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 298-319, July.
- repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2003:i:may:p:261-277 is not listed on IDEAS
- Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
- Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 1995.
"Imperfect Competition, Risk Taking, and Regulation in Banking,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1177, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 2000. "Imperfect competition, risk taking, and regulation in banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-34, January.
- Marc J. K. De Ceuster & Nancy Masschelein, 2003. "Regulating Banks through Market Discipline: A Survey of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 749-766, December.
- Verrecchia, Robert E., 2001. "Essays on disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 97-180, December.
- Boot, Arnoud W. A. & Schmeits, Anjolein, 2000. "Market Discipline and Incentive Problems in Conglomerate Firms with Applications to Banking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 240-273, July.
- Donald Morgan & Kevin Stiroh, 2001. "Market Discipline of Banks: The Asset Test," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 195-208, October.
- Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
- V. Crawford & J. Sobel, 2010.
"Strategic Information Transmission,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
544, David K. Levine.
- Hans Genberg, 2006.
"Exchange-Rate Arrangements and Financial Integration in East Asia: On a Collision Course?,"
41, Bank of Greece.
- Hans Genberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate arrangements and financial integration in East Asia: on a collision course?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 359-377, December.
- Hans Genberg, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Arrangements and Financial Integration in East Asia: On a Collision Course?," Working Papers 152006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Genberg, Hans, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Arrangements an Financial Integration in East Asia: On a Collision Course?," Working Papers 122, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- John Williamson, 2006.
"A Worldwide System of Reference Rates,"
45, Bank of Greece.
- Otmar Issing, 2006. "Europe's Hard Fix: The Euro Area," Working Papers 39, Bank of Greece.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christina Tsochatzi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.