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Modeling the Components of Market Discipline

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Author Info
Faidon Kalfaoglou () (Bank of Greece)
Alexandros Sarris (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations and University of Athens)
Abstract

This paper evaluates the role of inflation-forecast heterogeneity in US monetary policy making. The deviation between private and central bank inflation forecasts is identified as a factor increasing inflation persistence and thus calling for a policy reaction. An optimal policy rule is derived by the minimization under discretion of a standard central bank loss function subject to a Phillips curve, modified to include the forecast deviation, and a forward-looking aggregate demand equation. This rule, which itself includes the forecast deviation as an additional argument, is estimated for the period 1974-1998, covering the Chairmanships of Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan, by using real-time forecasts of inflation and the output gap obtained from the FOMC’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The estimated rule remains remarkably stable over the whole sample period, challenging the conventional view of a structural break following Volcker’s appointment as Chairman of the Fed. Finally, the substantial decline in the significance of the interest-rate smoothing term in the rule indicates that monetary policy inertia may, to a large extent, be an artifact of serially correlated inflation-forecast errors that feed into policy decisions in real time.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 36.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:36

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Related research
Keywords: Market discipline; transparency; bank risk;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
    Other versions:
  2. Blum, Jurg M., 2002. "Subordinated debt, market discipline, and banks' risk taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1427-1441, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Boot, Arnoud W A & Thakor, Anjan V, 2001. "The Many Faces of Information Disclosure," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 1021-57.
    Other versions:
  4. Hyytinen, A. & Takalo, T., 2000. "Enhancing Bank Transparency: a Re-assessment," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 492, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  5. Caprio, Gerard & Honohan, Patrick, 2004. "Can the unsophisticated market provide discipline?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3364, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Boot, Arnoud W. A. & Schmeits, Anjolein, 2000. "Market Discipline and Incentive Problems in Conglomerate Firms with Applications to Banking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 240-273, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 2000. "Imperfect competition, risk taking, and regulation in banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-34, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Ursel Baumann & Erlend Nier, 2004. "Disclosure, volatility, and transparency: and empirical investigation into the value of bank disclosure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 31-45. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ari Hyytinen & Tuomas Takalo, 2004. "Preventing Systemic Crises through Bank Transparency," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(2), pages 257-273, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Sironi, Andrea, 2003. " Testing for Market Discipline in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Subordinated Debt Issues," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 443-72, June.
    Other versions:
  11. Donald P. Morgan & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Bond market discipline of banks," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 494-526.
  12. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Cordella, Tito & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 1998. "Public Disclosure and Bank Failures," CEPR Discussion Papers 1886, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Erlend Nier & Ursel Baumann, 2003. "Market discipline, disclosure and moral hazard in banking," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 261-277.
  15. Simon H. Kwan, 2004. "Testing the strong-form of market discipline: the effects of public market signals on bank risk," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jordan, John S. & Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S., 2000. "The Market Reaction to the Disclosure of Supervisory Actions: Implications for Bank Transparency," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 298-319, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Verrecchia, Robert E., 2001. "Essays on disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 97-180, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Crawford, Vincent P & Sobel, Joel, 1982. "Strategic Information Transmission," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1431-51, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September. [Downloadable!]
  20. Marc J. K. De Ceuster & Nancy Masschelein, 2003. "Regulating Banks through Market Discipline: A Survey of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(5), pages 749-766, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Herring, Richard J., 2004. "The subordinated debt alternative to Basel II," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 137-155, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Disclosures and Asset Returns," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 105-133, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sven W. Arndt, 2006. "Regional Currency Arrangements in North America," Working Papers 40, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Hans Genberg, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Arrangements and Financial Integration in East Asia: On a Collision Course?," Working Papers 41, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Richard N. Cooper & Michael Bordo & Harold James, 2006. "What About a World Currency? Proposal for a Common Currency among Rich Democracies. One World Money, Then and Now," Working Papers 44, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  4. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2006. "Computational Intelligence in Exchange-Rate Forecasting," Working Papers 49, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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