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Modeling the Components of Market Discipline

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  • Faidon Kalfaoglou

    ()
    (Bank of Greece)

  • Alexandros Sarris

    (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations and University of Athens)

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    Abstract

    This paper evaluates the role of inflation-forecast heterogeneity in US monetary policy making. The deviation between private and central bank inflation forecasts is identified as a factor increasing inflation persistence and thus calling for a policy reaction. An optimal policy rule is derived by the minimization under discretion of a standard central bank loss function subject to a Phillips curve, modified to include the forecast deviation, and a forward-looking aggregate demand equation. This rule, which itself includes the forecast deviation as an additional argument, is estimated for the period 1974-1998, covering the Chairmanships of Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan, by using real-time forecasts of inflation and the output gap obtained from the FOMC’s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The estimated rule remains remarkably stable over the whole sample period, challenging the conventional view of a structural break following Volcker’s appointment as Chairman of the Fed. Finally, the substantial decline in the significance of the interest-rate smoothing term in the rule indicates that monetary policy inertia may, to a large extent, be an artifact of serially correlated inflation-forecast errors that feed into policy decisions in real time.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 36.

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    Length: 38 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:36

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    Web page: http://www.bankofgreece.gr
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    Keywords: Market discipline; transparency; bank risk;

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    References

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    1. Marc J. K. De Ceuster & Nancy Masschelein, 2003. "Regulating Banks through Market Discipline: A Survey of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 749-766, December.
    2. Tito Cordella & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 1998. "Public Disclosure and Bank Failures," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 110-131, March.
    3. Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Disclosures and Asset Returns," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 105-133, January.
    4. Ursel Baumann & Erlend Nier, 2004. "Disclosure, volatility, and transparency: and empirical investigation into the value of bank disclosure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 31-45.
    5. Crawford, Vincent P & Sobel, Joel, 1982. "Strategic Information Transmission," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1431-51, November.
    6. Ari Hyytinen & Tuomas Takalo, 2004. "Preventing Systemic Crises through Bank Transparency," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(2), pages 257-273, 07.
    7. Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-67, August.
    8. Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 1995. "Imperfect Competition, Risk Taking, and Regulation in Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 1177, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Anjan V. Thakor, 1998. "The Many Faces of Information Disclosure," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 80, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Herring, Richard J., 2004. "The subordinated debt alternative to Basel II," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 137-155, December.
    12. Donald Morgan & Kevin Stiroh, 2001. "Market Discipline of Banks: The Asset Test," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 195-208, October.
    13. Andrea Sironi, 2000. "Testing for market discipline in the European banking industry: evidence from subordinated debt issues," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Jordan, John S. & Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S., 2000. "The Market Reaction to the Disclosure of Supervisory Actions: Implications for Bank Transparency," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 298-319, July.
    15. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
    16. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
    17. Boot, Arnoud W. A. & Schmeits, Anjolein, 2000. "Market Discipline and Incentive Problems in Conglomerate Firms with Applications to Banking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 240-273, July.
    18. Verrecchia, Robert E., 2001. "Essays on disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 97-180, December.
    19. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Hans Genberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate arrangements and financial integration in East Asia: on a collision course?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 359-377, December.
    2. John Williamson, 2006. "A Worldwide System of Reference Rates," Working Papers 45, Bank of Greece.
    3. Otmar Issing, 2006. "Europe's Hard Fix: The Euro Area," Working Papers 39, Bank of Greece.

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