Unveiling the monetary policy rule in euro area
AbstractThis paper provides evidence that, since the sign of Maastricht Treaty, euro-area monetary authorities mainly follow a strong anti-inflationary policy. This policy can be described by a threshold monetary policy rule model which allows for distinct inflation policy regimes: a low and high. The paper finds that these authorities react more strongly to positive deviations of inflation and/or output from their target levels rather than to the negative. They do not seem to react at all to negative deviations of output from its target level in the low-inflation regime. We argue that this behaviour can be attributed to the attitude of the monetary authorities to build up credibility on stabilizing inflationary expectations. To evaluate the policy implications of the above euro-area monetary policy rule behaviour, the paper simulates a small New Keynesian model. This exercise clearly indicates that the absence of reaction of the euro-area monetary authorities to negative output gap when inflation is very low reduces their efficiency on dampening the effects of negative demand shocks on the economy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 130.
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Monetary policy; threshold models; regime-switching; generalized method of moments; New Keynesian model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-07-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-07-13 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2011-07-13 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2011-07-13 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-07-13 (Monetary Economics)
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