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Automation Technologies and Employment at Risk: The Case of Mexico

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  • Cebreros Alfonso
  • Heffner-Rodríguez Aldo
  • Livas René
  • Puggioni Daniela

Abstract

Based on the methodology proposed by Frey and Osborne (2017), we use their estimates for the probability of automation of occupations together with household survey data on the occupational distribution of employment to provide a risk assessment for the threat that automation may pose to the Mexican labor market. We find that almost two thirds of total employment is at high risk of automation; slightly more than half if we only consider employment in the formal sector. We argue that, while these estimates provide a useful benchmark to start thinking about the impact that automation may have on the labor market, they should be interpreted with care as they are solely based on the technical feasibility to automate and do not reflect the economic incentives, or other factors such as the accumulation of human capital through education, to adopt automation technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Cebreros Alfonso & Heffner-Rodríguez Aldo & Livas René & Puggioni Daniela, 2020. "Automation Technologies and Employment at Risk: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 2020-04, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2020-04
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    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/banco-de-mexico-working-papers/%7B2C07FC41-A983-957C-33FE-27A09DF133C6%7D.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. López Noria Gabriela, 2021. "Effects of Trade and Technology on the Mexican Labor Market," Working Papers 2021-22, Banco de México.
    2. Ramos, Minerva E. & Garza-Rodríguez, Jorge & Gibaja-Romero, Damian E., 2022. "Automation of employment in the presence of industry 4.0: The case of Mexico," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2020. "The dawn of fintech in Latin America: landscape, prospects and challenges," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 112.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Automation; Human capital and occupational choice; Labor demand; Organization of production; Robots; Technological change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production
    • L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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