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Should We Fear the Robot Revolution? (The Correct Answer is Yes)

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  • Mr. Andrew Berg
  • Mr. Edward F Buffie
  • Luis-Felipe Zanna

Abstract

We may be on the cusp of a “second industrial revolution” based on advances in artificial intelligence and robotics. We analyze the implications for inequality and output, using a model with two assumptions: “robot” capital is distinct from traditional capital in its degree of substitutability with human labor; and only capitalists and skilled workers save. We analyze a range of variants that reflect widely different views of how automation may transform the labor market. Our main results are surprisingly robust: automation is good for growth and bad for equality; in the benchmark model real wages fall in the short run and eventually rise, but “eventually” can easily take generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2018. "Should We Fear the Robot Revolution? (The Correct Answer is Yes)," IMF Working Papers 2018/116, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/116
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; real wage; Technological change; robots; growth; income distribution.; wage inequality; market-clearing wage; wage income; low-skill wage; per capita income; labor service; wage growth; Robotics; Real wages; Wage adjustments; Wages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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