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Monetary policy and stock prices: theory and evidence

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  • Stefano Neri

    ()
    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effects of monetary policy shocks on stock market indices in the G-7 countries and Spain using the methodology of structural VARs. A model is estimated for each country and the effects of monetary policy shocks are evaluated by means of impulse responses. A contractionary shock has a negative and temporary effect on stock market indices. There is evidence of a significant cross-country heterogeneity in the persistence, magnitude and timing of the responses. A limited participation model with households trading in stocks is set up and the responses of stock prices to a monetary policy shock under different rules are evaluated. The model is able to account for the empirical response of stock prices to monetary policy shocks under different policy rules.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 513.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_513_04

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Keywords: monetary policy; stock prices; structural VAR; limited participation model;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Riccardo Bonci & Francesco Columba, 2007. "The Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks On Flow Of Funds:The Italian Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 75, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  2. Gerlach, Stefan & Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2008. "Financial structure and the impact of monetary policy on asset prices," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/30, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Castelnuovo , Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in an DSGE model for the US," Research Discussion Papers 11/2010, Bank of Finland.
  4. Edouard Challe & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2012. "Stock Prices And Monetary Policy Shocks: A General Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers hal-00719956, HAL.
  5. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Kai Leitemo, 2008. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Working Paper 2008/04, Norges Bank.
  6. Pirovano, Mara, 2012. "Monetary policy and stock prices in small open economies: Empirical evidence for the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 372-390.
  7. Paolo Guarda & Philippe Jeanfils, 2012. "Macro-financial linkages: Evidence from country-specific VARs," BCL working papers 71, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  8. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2005. "European Monetary Policy Surprises: The Aggregate and Sectoral Stock Market Response," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/05, Central Bank of Ireland.
  9. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Ensuring financial stability: financial structure and the impact of monetary policy on asset prices," IEW - Working Papers 361, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  10. Riccardo Bonci & Francesco Columba, 2008. "Monetary Policy Effects: New Evidence from the Italian Flow of Funds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 678, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Massimo Caruso, 2006. "Stock market fluctuations and money demand in Italy, 1913-2003," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 576, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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