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Globalization and Inflation: The Role of China

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Author Info
Denise Côté
Carlos de Resende

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Abstract

In this paper, we develop a theoretical model which identifies four channels-import prices, competition with domestic suppliers and workers, and commodity prices-through which priceand wage-setting conditions in country j may affect inflation in country i. We estimate a dynamic inflation equation derived from the theoretical model using a quarterly dataset of eighteen OECD countries over the 1984-2006 period. Although our methodology can be applied to any pair of countries, we focus on the effect of China on the inflation rate of other countries. Our results suggest that while China's negative effect on global inflation has been quantitatively modest, it has increased in absolute terms since the early 2000s. We also find evidence that, for most countries examined, competition with domestic suppliers has been the most important channel.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/2008/wp08-35.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 08-35.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:08-35

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Related research
Keywords: International topics;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Carlos de Resende, 2007. "Cross-Country Estimates of the Degree of Fiscal Dominance and Central Bank Independence," Working Papers 07-36, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Luke Willard & Tarhan Feyzioglu, 2006. "Does Inflation in China Affect the United States and Japan?," IMF Working Papers 06/36, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Louis Morel, 2007. "The Direct Effect of China on Canadian Consumer Prices: An Empirical Assessment," Discussion Papers 07-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bomfim, Antulio N & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2000. "Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 707-21, November.
    Other versions:
  5. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-87, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2006. "Central bank independence and inflation: a note," Working Paper 0621, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. George T. McCandless, Jr. & Warren E. Weber, 1995. "Some monetary facts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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