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Pre-Bid Run-Ups Ahead of Canadian Takeovers: How Big Is the Problem?

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  • Michael R. King
  • Maksym Padalko

Abstract

The authors study the price--volume dynamics ahead of the first public announcement of a takeover for 420 Canadian firms from 1985 to 2002. Pre-bid price run-ups in a target firm's shares may be caused by some combination of information leakage due to illegal insider trading or market anticipation based on rumours in the press. The authors review empirical studies of illegal insider trading and trading ahead of unscheduled announcements to generate predictions for abnormal returns and abnormal volume ahead of the takeover announcement. They observe serially correlated volume and a pattern of return reversals in their sample. Pre-bid run-ups occur shortly before the actual announcement, accompanied by significantly positive abnormal returns and share volume. The stock prices of the target firm react significantly to the actual announcement, with both positive and negative reactions. These price–volume dynamics are more consistent with the predictions of the market anticipation hypothesis than the hypothesis of illegal insider trading.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 05-3.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:05-3

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Keywords: Financial markets;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Agrawal, Anup & Nasser, Tareque, 2012. "Insider trading in takeover targets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 598-625.
  2. Eckbo, B. Espen, 2009. "Bidding strategies and takeover premiums: A review," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 149-178, February.
  3. Aitken, Michael & Cumming, Douglas & Zhan, Feng, 2013. "Exchange trading rules, surveillance and insider trading," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. Madura, Jeff & Marciniak, Marek, 2014. "Bidder country characteristics and informed trading in U.S. targets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 256-284.
  5. Kedia, Simi & Zhou, Xing, 2014. "Informed trading around acquisitions: Evidence from corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 182-205.
  6. Cécile Carpentier & Jean-François L'Her & Stephan Smith & Jean-Marc Suret, 2007. "Risk, Timing and Overoptimism in Private Placements and Public Offerings," CIRANO Working Papers 2007s-27, CIRANO.

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