IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2105.11077.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Geopolitics Have an Impact on Energy Trade? Empirical Research on Emerging Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Fen Li
  • Cunyi Yang
  • Zhenghui Li
  • Pierre Failler

Abstract

The energy trade is an important pillar of each country's development, making up for the imbalance in the production and consumption of fossil fuels. Geopolitical risks affect the energy trade of various countries to a certain extent, but the causes of geopolitical risks are complex, and energy trade also involves many aspects, so the impact of geopolitics on energy trade is also complex. Based on the monthly data from 2000 to 2020 of 17 emerging economies, this paper employs the fixed-effect model and the regression-discontinuity (RD) model to verify the negative impact of geopolitics on energy trade first and then analyze the mechanism and heterogeneity of the impact. The following conclusions are drawn: First, geopolitics has a significant negative impact on the import and export of the energy trade, and the inhibition on the export is greater than that on the import. Second, the impact mechanism of geopolitics on the energy trade is reflected in the lagging effect and mediating effect on the imports and exports; that is, the negative impact of geopolitics on energy trade continued to be significant 10 months later. Coal and crude oil prices, as mediating variables, decreased to reduce the imports and exports, whereas natural gas prices showed an increase. Third, the impact of geopolitics on energy trade is heterogeneous in terms of national attribute characteristics and geo-event types.

Suggested Citation

  • Fen Li & Cunyi Yang & Zhenghui Li & Pierre Failler, 2021. "Does Geopolitics Have an Impact on Energy Trade? Empirical Research on Emerging Countries," Papers 2105.11077, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2105.11077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2105.11077
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & López-Otero, Xiral, 2017. "A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 549-568.
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 166, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    3. Le Coq, Chloé & Paltseva, Elena, 2009. "Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4474-4481, November.
    4. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    5. Zhong, Weiqiong & An, Haizhong & Fang, Wei & Gao, Xiangyun & Dong, Di, 2016. "Features and evolution of international fossil fuel trade network based on value of emergy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 868-877.
    6. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2017. "Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 571-581.
    7. Sampath Jayasinghe & John C. Beghin & Giancarlo Moschini, 2017. "Determinants Of World Demand For U.S. Corn Seeds: The Role Of Trade Costs," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John Christopher Beghin (ed.), Nontariff Measures and International Trade, chapter 17, pages 309-320, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Sun, Mei & Gao, Cuixia & Shen, Bo, 2014. "Quantifying China's oil import risks and the impact on the national economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 605-611.
    9. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 314-319.
    10. Tinghui Li & Junhao Zhong & Zimei Huang, 2020. "Potential Dependence of Financial Cycles between Emerging and Developed Countries: Based on ARIMA-GARCH Copula Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(6), pages 1237-1250, May.
    11. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Cioffi, Antonio, 2012. "The entry price threshold in EU agriculture: Deterrent or barrier?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 691-704.
    12. Faria, João Ricardo & Mollick, André Varella & Albuquerque, Pedro H. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009. "The effect of oil price on China's exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 793-805, December.
    13. Guido Imbens & Karthik Kalyanaraman, 2012. "Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 933-959.
    14. An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Fang, Wei & Huang, Xuan & Ding, Yinghui, 2014. "The role of fluctuating modes of autocorrelation in crude oil prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 393(C), pages 382-390.
    15. Kemfert, Claudia & Schmalz, Sophie, 2019. "Sustainable Finance: Political Challenges of Development and Implementation of Framework Conditions," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(3), pages 237-248.
    16. Gupta, Eshita, 2008. "Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1195-1211, March.
    17. Dagher, Leila, 2012. "Natural gas demand at the utility level: An application of dynamic elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 961-969.
    18. Zhenghui Li & Gaoke Liao & Khaldoon Albitar, 2020. "Does corporate environmental responsibility engagement affect firm value? The mediating role of corporate innovation," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 1045-1055, March.
    19. Andrea Dal Bianco & Vasco Ladislao Boatto & Francesco Caracciolo & Fabio Gaetano Santeramo, 2016. "Tariffs and non-tariff frictions in the world wine trade," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 43(1), pages 31-57.
    20. Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    21. Richard Wood & Konstantin Stadler & Moana Simas & Tatyana Bulavskaya & Stefan Giljum & Stephan Lutter & Arnold Tukker, 2018. "Growth in Environmental Footprints and Environmental Impacts Embodied in Trade: Resource Efficiency Indicators from EXIOBASE3," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 22(3), pages 553-564, June.
    22. Fen Li & Zhehao Huang & Junhao Zhong & Khaldoon Albitar, 2020. "Do Tense Geopolitical Factors Drive Crude Oil Prices?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-20, August.
    23. Lin, Bo-qiang & Liu, Jiang-hua, 2010. "Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 512-519, January.
    24. Faria, João Ricardo & Mollick, André Varella & Albuquerque, Pedro H. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009. "The effect of oil price on China's exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 793-805, December.
    25. Yue Liu & Zhenghui Li & Manrui Xu, 2020. "The Influential Factors of Financial Cycle Spillover: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(6), pages 1336-1350, May.
    26. Jiang, Xuemei & Guan, Dabo, 2017. "The global CO2 emissions growth after international crisis and the role of international trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 734-746.
    27. Spalevic, Zaklina & Ilic, Milos & Filipic, Goran, 2019. "Правни и економски аспекти интелектуалне својине у цyбер простору," Ekonomika, Journal for Economic Theory and Practice and Social Issues, Society of Economists Ekonomika, Nis, Serbia, vol. 65(2), February.
    28. Zhang, Hai-Ying & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2015. "What drives the formation of global oil trade patterns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 639-648.
    29. Nathalie Maréchal, 2017. "Networked Authoritarianism and the Geopolitics of Information: Understanding Russian Internet Policy," Media and Communication, Cogitatio Press, vol. 5(1), pages 29-41.
    30. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 433-447.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tinghui Li & Jiehua Ma & Bin Mo, 2021. "Does Environmental Policy Affect Green Total Factor Productivity? Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on China’s Air Pollution Control and Prevention Action Plan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-23, August.
    2. Xiaoyu Niu & Wei Chen & Nyuying Wang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Topological Evolution of the Global Crude Oil Trade Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Yugang He & Ziqian Zhang, 2022. "Energy and Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from OECD Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-13, September.
    4. Zhenghui Li & Fanqi Zou & Yong Tan & Jinhui Zhu, 2021. "Does Financial Excess Support Land Urbanization—An Empirical Study of Cities in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    5. Min Hong & Xiaolei Wang & Zhenghui Li, 2022. "Will Oil Price Volatility Cause Market Panic?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-17, June.
    6. Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Haider Ali & Ana Ercília José, 2022. "Application of Multifractal Analysis in Estimating the Reaction of Energy Markets to Geopolitical Acts and Threats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
    7. Yan Ding & Yue Liu & Pierre Failler, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainties on Crude Oil Prices: Based on a Quantile-on-Quantile Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-35, May.
    8. Cui, Lianbiao & Yue, Suyun & Nghiem, Xuan-Hoa & Duan, Mei, 2023. "Exploring the risk and economic vulnerability of global energy supply chain interruption in the context of Russo-Ukrainian war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Sa Xu & Cunyi Yang & Zhehao Huang & Pierre Failler, 2022. "Interaction between Digital Economy and Environmental Pollution: New Evidence from a Spatial Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-23, April.
    10. Yuping Jin & Yanbin Yang & Wei Liu, 2022. "Finding Global Liquefied Natural Gas Potential Trade Relations Based on Improved Link Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-22, September.
    11. Kaiming Zhong & Hongyan Fu & Tinghui Li, 2022. "Can the Digital Economy Facilitate Carbon Emissions Decoupling? An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Data in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-25, June.
    12. Yang Chen & Jian Xu, 2022. "The Role of Supervisory Board Heterogeneity on Corporate Irregularity: New Insights and Management Opportunities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.
    13. Md. Monirul Islam & Kazi Sohag & Faheem ur Rehman, 2022. "Do Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policy Uncertainties Reorient Mineral Imports in the USA? A Fat-Tailed Data Analysis Using Novel Quantile Approaches," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
    14. Yue Liu & Pierre Failler & Liming Chen, 2021. "Can Mandatory Disclosure Policies Promote Corporate Environmental Responsibility?—Quasi-Natural Experimental Research on China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Yanhong Feng & Xiaolei Wang & Shuanglian Chen & Yanqiong Liu, 2022. "Impact of Oil Financialization on Oil Price Fluctuation: A Perspective of Heterogeneity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
    16. Yingnan Cong & Yufei Hou & Jiaming Jiang & Shuangzi Chen & Xiaojing Cai, 2023. "Features and Evolution of Global Energy Trade Patterns from the Perspective of Complex Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-17, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Hongwei & Wang, Ying & Yang, Cai & Guo, Yaoqi, 2021. "The impact of country risk on energy trade patterns based on complex network and panel regression analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    2. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Chen, Xiuwen & Li, Jianping, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 449-465.
    3. Liu, Litao & Cao, Zhi & Liu, Xiaojie & Shi, Lei & Cheng, Shengkui & Liu, Gang, 2020. "Oil security revisited: An assessment based on complex network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    4. Sato, Masahiro & Kharrazi, Ali & Nakayama, Hirofumi & Kraines, Steven & Yarime, Masaru, 2017. "Quantifying the supplier-portfolio diversity of embodied energy: Strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 41-52.
    5. Mohsin, M. & Zhou, P. & Iqbal, N. & Shah, S.A.A., 2018. "Assessing oil supply security of South Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 438-447.
    6. Zhang, Hongwei & Wang, Ying & Zhu, Xuehong & Guo, Yaoqi, 2020. "The impact of energy trade patterns on CO2 emissions: An emergy and network analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    7. Song, Zhouying & Zhu, Qiaoling & Han, Mengyao, 2021. "Tele-connection of global crude oil network: Comparisons between direct trade and embodied flows," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    8. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2019. "Oil price shocks and Chinese banking performance: Do country risks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 46-53.
    9. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2017. "Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 571-581.
    10. Yingce Yang & Junjie Guo & Ruihong He, 2023. "The Asymmetric Impact of the Oil Price and Disaggregate Shocks on Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    11. Jun Wen & Samia Khalid & Hamid Mahmood & Xiuyun Yang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and growth nexus in Pakistan: a new evidence using NARDL model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1701-1715, August.
    12. Badshah, Ihsan & Demirer, Riza & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2019. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock-commodity correlations and its implications on optimal hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Song, Lu & Tian, Gengyu & Jiang, Yonghong, 2022. "Connectedness of commodity, exchange rate and categorical economic policy uncertainties — Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    14. Gu, Xin & Zhu, Zixiang & Yu, Minli, 2021. "The macro effects of GPR and EPU indexes over the global oil market—Are the two types of uncertainty shock alike?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. Vivoda, Vlado, 2019. "LNG import diversification and energy security in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 967-974.
    16. Aloui, Riadh & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2016. "Uncertainty and crude oil returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 92-100.
    17. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis, 2019. "Forecasting European economic policy uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 94-114, February.
    18. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2020. "Factors driving oil price —— from the perspective of United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    19. Kamonphorn Kanchana & Hironobu Unesaki, 2015. "Assessing Energy Security Using Indicator-Based Analysis: The Case of ASEAN Member Countries," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-47, December.
    20. Vivoda, Vlado, 2022. "LNG export diversification and demand security: A comparative study of major exporters," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2105.11077. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.