IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v68y2014icp930-938.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Yuying
  • Li, Jianping
  • Sun, Xiaolei
  • Chen, Jianming

Abstract

External oil supply risk is an important aspect of energy security and oil import diversification is viewed as one of the most effective measures to reduce supply risk. By using the diversification index approach, this research attempts to assess external oil supply risks of oil importers with consideration of two key factors associated with oil suppliers, country risk and potential oil exports capacity. The former can be used to reflect the oil supply risk associated with oil suppliers' macro-economic and socio-political stability and the latter is directly related with the physical availability of oil. The empirical research on China, Japan, the US and EU demonstrates that Japan's oil importing strategy is more concerned about potential exports of oil suppliers than country risk; the EU's oil imports have a good balance between country risk and potential exports of oil suppliers; the US has successfully diversified its oil imports to maintain the security of its external oil supply. With the rapid increase in oil demand, China has changed its oil import policy by expanding oil trade partners and switching to suppliers with high potential oil exports. Some further suggestions are presented for China to ensure its oil supply security in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:68:y:2014:i:c:p:930-938
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.02.091
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544214002382
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2014.02.091?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cohen, Gail & Joutz, Frederick & Loungani, Prakash, 2011. "Measuring energy security: Trends in the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4860-4869, September.
    2. Tsoskounoglou, Miltos & Ayerides, George & Tritopoulou, Efi, 2008. "The end of cheap oil: Current status and prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3797-3806, October.
    3. Kretzschmar, Gavin L. & Sharifzyanova, Liliya, 2010. "Limits to international diversification in oil & gas – Domestic vs foreign asset control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 468-477.
    4. Wu, Gang & Liu, Lan-Cui & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2009. "Comparison of China's oil import risk: Results based on portfolio theory and a diversification index approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3557-3565, September.
    5. Ge, Fenglong & Fan, Ying, 2013. "Quantifying the risk to crude oil imports in China: An improved portfolio approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-80.
    6. Hallock, John L. & Tharakan, Pradeep J. & Hall, Charles A.S. & Jefferson, Michael & Wu, Wei, 2004. "Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1673-1696.
    7. Chuang, Ming Chih & Ma, Hwong Wen, 2013. "Energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices—Taiwan energy supply structure case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 9-20.
    8. Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui, 2007. "An empirical analysis of the risk of crude oil imports in China using improved portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4190-4199, August.
    9. de Almeida, Pedro & Silva, Pedro D., 2009. "The peak of oil production--Timings and market recognition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1267-1276, April.
    10. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Mukherjee, Ishani & Drupady, Ira Martina & D’Agostino, Anthony L., 2011. "Evaluating energy security performance from 1990 to 2010 for eighteen countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 5846-5853.
    11. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    12. Matsumoto, Ken'ichi & Voudouris, Vlasios & Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios & Rigby, Robert & Di Maio, Carlo, 2012. "Exploring crude oil production and export capacity of the OPEC Middle East countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 820-828.
    13. Wang, Yanjia & Gu, Alun & Zhang, Aling, 2011. "Recent development of energy supply and demand in China, and energy sector prospects through 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6745-6759.
    14. Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping & Tang, Ling & Wu, Dengsheng, 2012. "Identifying the risk-return tradeoff and exploring the dynamic risk exposure of country portfolio of the FSU's oil economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2494-2503.
    15. Zhang, Hai-Ying & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2013. "An evaluation framework for oil import security based on the supply chain with a case study focused on China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-95.
    16. Stirling, Andrew, 1994. "Diversity and ignorance in electricity supply investment : Addressing the solution rather than the problem," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 195-216, March.
    17. Wabiri, Njeri & Amusa, Hammed, 2010. "Quantifying South Africa's crude oil import risk: A multi-criteria portfolio model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 445-453, January.
    18. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Mukherjee, Ishani, 2011. "Conceptualizing and measuring energy security: A synthesized approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5343-5355.
    19. Chantale LaCasse & Andre Plourde, 1995. "On the Renewal of Concern for the Security of Oil Supply," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-24.
    20. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang, 2014. "Multi-perspective analysis of China's energy supply security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 541-550.
    21. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    22. Vivoda, Vlado, 2009. "Diversification of oil import sources and energy security: A key strategy or an elusive objective?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4623, November.
    23. Le Coq, Chloé & Paltseva, Elena, 2009. "Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4474-4481, November.
    24. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F. & Nakawiro, Thanawat, 2012. "Assessing the sustainability challenges for electricity industries in ASEAN newly industrialising countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 2217-2233.
    25. Sorrell, Steve & Miller, Richard & Bentley, Roger & Speirs, Jamie, 2010. "Oil futures: A comparison of global supply forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4990-5003, September.
    26. Zheng, Yuhua & Luo, Dongkun, 2013. "Industrial structure and oil consumption growth path of China: Empirical evidence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 336-343.
    27. Martinez, Manuel, 1988. "Energy diversification priorities for the Mexican electrical sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(10), pages 787-796.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Chen, Xiuwen & Li, Jianping, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 449-465.
    2. Sato, Masahiro & Kharrazi, Ali & Nakayama, Hirofumi & Kraines, Steven & Yarime, Masaru, 2017. "Quantifying the supplier-portfolio diversity of embodied energy: Strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 41-52.
    3. Xiaolei Sun & Jun Hao & Jianping Li, 2022. "Multi-objective optimization of crude oil-supply portfolio based on interval prediction data," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 309(2), pages 611-639, February.
    4. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Liu, Litao & Cao, Zhi & Liu, Xiaojie & Shi, Lei & Cheng, Shengkui & Liu, Gang, 2020. "Oil security revisited: An assessment based on complex network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    6. Narula, Kapil & Reddy, B. Sudhakara, 2016. "A SES (sustainable energy security) index for developing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 326-343.
    7. Ioannidis, Alexis & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J. & Li, Xin & Notton, Gilles & Stephanides, Phedeas, 2019. "The case for islands’ energy vulnerability: Electricity supply diversity in 44 global islands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 440-452.
    8. Vivoda, Vlado, 2022. "LNG export diversification and demand security: A comparative study of major exporters," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    9. Chuang, Ming Chih & Ma, Hwong Wen, 2013. "Energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices—Taiwan energy supply structure case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 9-20.
    10. Mohsin, M. & Zhou, P. & Iqbal, N. & Shah, S.A.A., 2018. "Assessing oil supply security of South Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 438-447.
    11. Gasser, Patrick, 2020. "A review on energy security indices to compare country performances," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Ang, B.W. & Choong, W.L. & Ng, T.S., 2015. "Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1077-1093.
    13. Zhang, Long & Yu, Jing & Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Ren, Jingzheng, 2017. "Measuring energy security performance within China: Toward an inter-provincial prospective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 825-836.
    14. Vivoda, Vlado, 2019. "LNG import diversification and energy security in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 967-974.
    15. Benye Shi & Tian Cai, 2020. "Has China’s Oil Investment in Belt and Road Initiative Countries Helped Its Oil Import?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-13, June.
    16. Chen, Sai & Song, Yan & Ding, Yueting & Zhang, Ming & Nie, Rui, 2021. "Using long short-term memory model to study risk assessment and prediction of China’s oil import from the perspective of resilience theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    17. Jianping Li & Xiaolei Sun & Fei Wang & Dengsheng Wu, 2015. "Risk integration and optimization of oil-importing maritime system: a multi-objective programming approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 57-76, November.
    18. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Hai-Ying & Zhang, Dayong, 2019. "The impact of OPEC on East Asian oil import security: A multidimensional analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 99-107.
    19. An, Qier & Wang, Lang & Qu, Debin & Zhang, Hujun, 2018. "Dependency network of international oil trade before and after oil price drop," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 1021-1033.
    20. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:68:y:2014:i:c:p:930-938. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.