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Oil futures: A comparison of global supply forecasts

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Author Info

  • Sorrell, Steve
  • Miller, Richard
  • Bentley, Roger
  • Speirs, Jamie

Abstract

This paper compares and evaluates fourteen contemporary forecasts of global supply of conventional oil and provides some observations on their relative plausibility. Despite the wide range of modelling approaches used and multiplicity of assumptions made, it is shown that forecasts can be usefully compared along two dimensions, namely: shape of future production profile and assumed or implied ultimately recoverable resource of conventional oil. Other differences between forecasts are either secondary or are components of these two parameters. The paper shows how large differences in the assumed size of the resource make relatively little difference to the timing of a global peak in conventional oil production. It also examines the impact of rates of discovery, reserves growth and depletion on the forecast date of peak and shows how forecasts that delay this peak until beyond 2030 rest on assumptions that are at best optimistic and at worst implausible.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 9 (September)
Pages: 4990-5003

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:9:p:4990-5003

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Related research

Keywords: Depletion Peak oil Ultimately recoverable resource;

References

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  1. Cleveland, Cutler J., 1991. "Physical and economic aspects of resource quality : The cost of oil supply in the lower 48 United States, 1936-1988," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 163-188, June.
  2. Brandt, Adam R., 2007. "Testing Hubbert," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3074-3088, May.
  3. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
  4. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Shiers, Laura D., 2008. "Alternatives to conventional crude oil: When, how quickly, and market driven?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 405-411, October.
  5. Soderbergh, Bengt & Robelius, Fredrik & Aleklett, Kjell, 2007. "A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1931-1947, March.
  6. Cleveland, Cutler J., 2005. "Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 769-782.
  7. Dermot Gately, 2004. "OPEC's Incentives for Faster Output Growth," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 75-96.
  8. Roberto F. Aguilera & Roderick G. Eggert & Gustavo Lagos C.C. & John E. Tilton, 2009. "Depletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 141-174.
  9. Dees, Stephane & Karadeloglou, Pavlos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Sanchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 178-191, January.
  10. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
  11. Reynolds, Douglas B., 1999. "The mineral economy: how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 155-166, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mercure, Jean-François & Salas, Pablo, 2013. "On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 469-483.
  2. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Snowden, Simon & Aleklett, Kjell, 2014. "Bottom-up modeling of oil production: A review of approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 113-123.
  3. Mads V. Markussen & Hanne Østergård, 2013. "Energy Analysis of the Danish Food Production System: Food-EROI and Fossil Fuel Dependency," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(8), pages 4170-4186, August.
  4. Ali Mirchi & Saeed Hadian & Kaveh Madani & Omid M. Rouhani & Azadeh M. Rouhani, 2012. " World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(8), pages 2626-2651, July.
  5. Russo, D. & Dassisti, M. & Lawlor, V. & Olabi, A.G., 2012. "State of the art of biofuels from pure plant oil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 4056-4070.
  6. McGlade, Christophe & Ekins, Paul, 2014. "Un-burnable oil: An examination of oil resource utilisation in a decarbonised energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 102-112.
  7. Wiedenhofer, Dominik & Lenzen, Manfred & Steinberger, Julia K., 2013. "Energy requirements of consumption: Urban form, climatic and socio-economic factors, rebounds and their policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 696-707.
  8. Marcelle Chauvet & Jack G. Selody & Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof & Jaromir Benes & Ondra Kamenik & Susanna Mursula, 2012. "The Future of Oil," IMF Working Papers 12/109, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(2), pages 664-694, February.
  10. Michael Kumhof & Dirk Muir, 2012. "Oil and the World Economy," IMF Working Papers 12/256, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Reynolds, Douglas B., 2014. "World oil production trend: Comparing Hubbert multi-cycle curves," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 62-71.
  12. Cameron Hepburn & Alex Bowen, 2012. "Prosperity with growth: Economic growth, climate change and environmental limits," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 93, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

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