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U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market; Forecasting and Structural Change

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  • Isengildina-Massa, Olga
  • MacDonald, Stephen

Abstract

This report analyzes recent structural changes in the world cotton industry and develops a statistical model that reflects current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes in 2008 authorized USDA to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in nearly 80 years. Systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review of price relationships. A structural break in the U.S. cotton industry occurred in 1999, and world cotton supply has become an important determinant of U.S. cotton prices, along with China’s trade and production policy. The model developed here forecasts changes in the U.S. upland cotton farm price based on changes in U.S. cotton supply, the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio (S/U), China’s net imports as a share of world consumption, the foreign supply of cotton, and selected farm policy parameters.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service in its series Economic Research Report with number 55950.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:55950

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Keywords: forecasting; cotton; price; demand; trade; structural change; farm programs.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing; Production Economics;

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References

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  1. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Marie Diron, 2006. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth - an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series 622, European Central Bank.
  3. Goodwin, Barry K. & Schnepf, Randall D. & Dohlman, Erik, 2001. "Modeling Soybean Prices in a Changing Policy Environment," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18946, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  4. Olmstead, Alan L. & Rhode, Paul W., 2003. "Hog-Round Marketing, Seed Quality, and Government Policy: Institutional Change in U.S. Cotton Production, 1920 1960," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(02), pages 447-488, June.
  5. Adusei Jumah & Robert M. Kunst, 2008. "Seasonal prediction of European cereal prices: good forecasts using bad models?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 391-406.
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  1. repec:ags:jrapmc:122314 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & MacDonald, Stephen & Xie, Ran, 2012. "A Comprehensive Evaluation of USDA Cotton Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(1), April.

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