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Hysteresis vs. Natural Rate of US Unemployment

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Author Info

  • Ka Ming Cheng
  • Nazif Durmaz
  • Hyeongwoo Kim
  • Michael Stern

Abstract

This paper investigates the stochastic nature of the unemployment rate allowing for cross-section dependence from a panel of US state-level data. We employ the PANIC method to test the null of nonstationarity for the common and idiosyncratic components separately. We find significant evidence of a nonstationary common component when the data from the most recent recession are included. Even when stationarity is empirically supported, the bias-corrected half-life of the common component appears very long.

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File URL: http://cla.auburn.edu/econwp/Archives/2011/2011-01.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Auburn University in its series Auburn Economics Working Paper Series with number auwp2011-01.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2011-01

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Web page: http://cla.auburn.edu/economics/
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Keywords: Unemployment Rate; Natural Rate Hypothesis; Hysteresis; PANIC; Cross-Section Dependence;

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References

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  1. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1986. "Hysteresis and Unemployment," Working papers 430, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Chi-Young Choi & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2010. "Bias Reduction in Dynamic Panel Data Models by Common Recursive Mean Adjustment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(5), pages 567-599, October.
  3. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
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  9. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  11. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2010. "Examining the Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity by Recursive Mean Adjustment," MPRA Paper 22712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Zhijie Xiao & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1997. "An ADF Coefficient Test for a Unit Root in ARMA Models of Unknown Order with Empirical Applications to the U.S. Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1161, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07.
  14. Brunello, Giorgio, 1990. "Hysteresis and "The Japanese Unemployment Problem": A Preliminary Investigation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 483-500, July.
  15. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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  18. Roed, Knut, 1996. "Unemployment Hysteresis--Macro Evidence from 16 OECD Countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 589-600.
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  20. So, Beong Soo & Shin, Dong Wan, 1999. "Recursive mean adjustment in time-series inferences," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 65-73, May.
  21. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Stern, Liliana V. & Stern, Michael L., 2010. "Half-life bias correction and the G7 stock markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 1-3, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mark J. Holmes & Jesus Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2013. "Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1315, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  2. Donald Freeman, 2012. "On (Not) Closing the Gaps: The Evolution of National and Regional Unemployment Rates by Race and Ethnicity," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 267-284, June.
  3. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel, 2013. "Persistence and non-linearity in US unemployment: A regime-switching approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 61-68.
  4. Aloy Marcel & Tong Charles Lai & Peguin-Feissolle Anne & Dufrénot Gilles, 2013. "A smooth transition long-memory model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 281-296, May.
  5. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S. & Olfert, M. Rose & Tan, Ying, 2012. "When spatial equilibrium fails: is place-based policy second best?," MPRA Paper 40270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2013. "Unemployment Rate Hysteresis and the Great Recession: Exploring the Metropolitan Evidence," Working papers 2013-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

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