IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/stecpp/978-3-7908-1992-2_2.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Exchange rate volatility and the mixture of distribution hypothesis

In: High Frequency Financial Econometrics

Author

Listed:
  • Luc Bauwens

    (Université catholique de Louvain)

  • Dagfinn Rime

    (Norges Bank)

  • Genaro Sucarrat

    (Université catholique de Louvain)

Abstract

This study sheds new light on the mixture of distribution hypothesis by means of a study of the weekly exchange rate volatility of the Norwegian krone. In line with other studies we find that the impact of information arrival on exchange rate volatility is positive and statistically significant, and that the hypothesis that an increase in the number of traders reduces exchange rate volatility is not supported. The novelties of our study consist in documenting that the positive impact of information arrival on volatility is relatively stable across three different exchange rate regimes, and in that the impact is relatively similar for both weekly volatility and weekly realised volatility. It is not given that the former should be the case since exchange rate stabilisation was actively pursued by the central bank in parts of the study period. We also report a case in which undesirable residual properties attained within traditional frameworks are easily removed by applying the logtransformation on volatilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Luc Bauwens & Dagfinn Rime & Genaro Sucarrat, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and the mixture of distribution hypothesis," Studies in Empirical Economics, in: Luc Bauwens & Winfried Pohlmeier & David Veredas (ed.), High Frequency Financial Econometrics, pages 7-29, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stecpp:978-3-7908-1992-2_2
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-7908-1992-2_2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Saunders, Anthony, 1986. "Futures Price Variability: A Test of Maturity and Volume Effects," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 319-330, April.
    2. Melvin, Michael & Yin, Xixi, 2000. "Public Information Arrival, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Quote Frequency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 644-661, July.
    3. Geir H. Bjønnes & Dagfinn Rime & Haakon O. Aa. Solheim, 2002. "Volume and Volatility in the FX-Market: Does it matter who you are?," CESifo Working Paper Series 786, CESifo.
    4. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    5. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1986. "Professor Hendry's Econometric Methodology," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 283-307, August.
    6. Bauwens, Luc & Ben Omrane, Walid & Giot, Pierre, 2005. "News announcements, market activity and volatility in the euro/dollar foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1108-1125, November.
    7. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    8. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    9. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    10. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    11. Akram, Q.F., 2000. "When does the Oil Price Affect the Norwegian Exchange Rate?," Economics Series Working Papers 9931, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    13. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    14. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    15. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    16. Philippe Jorion, 1996. "Risk and Turnover in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 19-40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Gabriele Galati, 2000. "Trading volumes, volatility and spreads in foreign exchange markets: evidence from emerging market countries," BIS Working Papers 93, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. GIOT, Pierre, 2003. "The Asian financial crisis : the start of a regime switch in volatility," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2003078, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    19. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J, 1992. "Futures-Trading Activity and Stock Price Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 2015-2034, December.
    20. Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. "Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-1443, September.
    21. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Figliuoli, L., 1991. "Every minute counts in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-52, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:imd:wpaper:wp2010-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. POPOVICI, Oana Cristina, 2015. "A Volatility Analysis Of The Euro Currency And The Bond Market," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(1), pages 67-79.
    3. Frömmel, Michael & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2008. "Order flows, news, and exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 994-1012, October.
    4. Damette, Olivier, 2016. "Mixture Distribution Hypothesis And The Impact Of A Tobin Tax On Exchange Rate Volatility: A Reassessment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1600-1622, September.
    5. Jakree Koosakul & Ilhyock Shim, 2017. "The beneficial aspect of FX volatility for market liquidity," BIS Working Papers 629, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Francis Bismans & Olivier Damette, 2012. "La taxe Tobin : une synthèse des travaux basés sur la théorie des jeux et l’économétrie," Working Papers of BETA 2012-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. repec:erh:journl:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:59-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Rime, Dagfinn & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2007. "Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity," UC3M Working papers. Economics we077039, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    9. Francq, Christian & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2017. "An equation-by-equation estimator of a multivariate log-GARCH-X model of financial returns," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 16-32.
    10. Olivier Damette & Stéphane Goutte, 2014. "Tobin tax and trading volume tightening: a reassessment," Working Papers halshs-00926805, HAL.
    11. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2019. "Intraday volume-volatility nexus in the FX markets: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    12. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010. "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 885-907, October.
    13. Angelo Ranaldo & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2018. "Trading Volume, Illiquidity and Commonalities in FX Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1823, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Oct 2019.
    14. Michael Frömmel & Eyup Kadioglu, 2023. "Impact of trading hours extensions on foreign exchange volatility: intraday evidence from the Moscow exchange," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, December.
    15. Munazza Jabeen & Saud Ahmad Khan, 2014. "Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility by Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Pakistan," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 6(2), pages 58-76, September.
    16. Fayçal Hamdi & Saïd Souam, 2018. "Mixture periodic GARCH models: theory and applications," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1925-1956, December.
    17. Olivier Damette & St鰨ane Goutte, 2015. "Tobin tax and trading volume tightening: a reassessment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(29), pages 3124-3141, June.
    18. Olivier Damette & Beum-Jo Park, 2015. "Tobin Tax and Volatility: A Threshold Quantile Autoregressive Regression Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 996-1022, November.
    19. Dick van Dijk & Haris Munandar & Christian M. Hafner, 2005. "The Euro Introduction and Non-Euro Currencies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-044/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 08 Jun 2006.
    20. Ewa M. Syczewska, 2014. "The EURPLN, DAX and WIG20: the Granger causality tests before and during the crisis," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14, pages 93-104.
    21. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    22. Ho, Kin-Yip & Shi, Yanlin & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2018. "Public information arrival, price discovery and dynamic correlations in the Chinese renminbi markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 168-186.
    23. Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
    24. Sucarrat, Genaro & Escribano, Álvaro, 2010. "The power log-GARCH model," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1013, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rime, Dagfinn & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2007. "Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity," UC3M Working papers. Economics we077039, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    2. Mende, Alexander, 2005. "09/11 on the USD/EUR Foreign Exchange Market," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-312, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    3. Geir H. Bjønnes & Dagfinn Rime & Haakon O. Aa. Solheim, 2002. "Volume and Volatility in the FX-Market: Does it matter who you are?," CESifo Working Paper Series 786, CESifo.
    4. Chionis, Dionysios & MacDonald, Ronald, 1997. "Some tests of market microstructure hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 203-229, October.
    5. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Wu, Eliza, 2014. "How does trading volume affect financial return distributions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 190-206.
    8. Park, Beum-Jo, 2010. "Surprising information, the MDH, and the relationship between volatility and trading volume," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 344-366, August.
    9. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Tamvakis, Michael, 2016. "Market conditions, trader types and price–volume relation in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 134-149.
    10. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2002. "Return-volume dynamics in UK futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 707-713.
    11. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L. & Tsorakidis, Nikos, 2013. "Bid-ask spread dynamics in foreign exchange markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 119-131.
    12. Aris Kartsaklas, 2018. "Trader Type Effects On The Volatility‐Volume Relationship Evidence From The Kospi 200 Index Futures Market," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 226-250, July.
    13. Hartmann, Philipp, 1999. "Trading volumes and transaction costs in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from daily dollar-yen spot data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 801-824, May.
    14. Alizadeh, Amir H., 2013. "Trading volume and volatility in the shipping forward freight market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 250-265.
    15. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    16. Eric Ghysels & Christian Gouriéroux & Joann Jasiak, 1995. "Trading Patterns, Time Deformation and Stochastic Volatility in Foreign Exchange Markets," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-42, CIRANO.
    17. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    18. Holmes, Phil & Rougier, Jonathan, 2005. "Trading volume and contract rollover in futures contracts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 317-338, March.
    19. Chang, Yuanchen & Taylor, Stephen J., 2003. "Information arrivals and intraday exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 85-112, April.
    20. Sarika Mahajan & Balwinder Singh, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock Price-Volume Relationship in Indian Stock Market," Vision, , vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate volatility; Mixture of distribution hypothesis;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:stecpp:978-3-7908-1992-2_2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.