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Water and economic development: The role of variability and a framework for resilience

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  • Casey Brown
  • Upmanu Lall

Abstract

The article advances the hypothesis that the seasonal and inter‐annual variability of rainfall is a significant and measurable factor in the economic development of nations. An analysis of global datasets reveals a statistically significant relationship between greater rainfall variability and lower per capita GDP. Having established this correlation, we construct a water resources development index that highlights areas that have the greatest need for storage infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of rainfall variability on water availability for food and basic livelihood. The countries with the most critical infrastructure needs according to this metric are among the poorest in the world, and the majority of them are located in Africa. The importance of securing water availability in these nations increases every day in light of current population growth, economic development, and climate change projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Casey Brown & Upmanu Lall, 2006. "Water and economic development: The role of variability and a framework for resilience," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 306-317, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:30:y:2006:i:4:p:306-317
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-8947.2006.00118.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Mellinger & Jeffrey D. Sachs & John Luke Gallup, 1999. "Climate, Water Navigability, and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 24A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 2003. "Tropics, germs, and crops: how endowments influence economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 3-39, January.
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    6. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2001. "Tropical Underdevelopment," NBER Working Papers 8119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    8. Andrew D. Mellinger & Jeffrey D. Sachs & John L. Gallup, 1999. "Climate, Water Navigability, and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 24, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    9. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, June.
    10. Gallup, John L. & Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Mellinger, Andrew, "undated". "Geography and Economic Development," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics geodata, Boston College Department of Economics.
    11. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew D. Mellinger, 1998. "Geography and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 6849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bagstad, Kenneth J. & Ancona, Zachary H. & Hass, Julie & Glynn, Pierre D. & Wentland, Scott & Vardon, Michael & Fay, John, 2020. "Integrating physical and economic data into experimental water accounts for the United States: Lessons and opportunities," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. Jan Beck & Andrea Sieber, 2010. "Is the Spatial Distribution of Mankind's Most Basic Economic Traits Determined by Climate and Soil Alone?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(5), pages 1-10, May.
    4. Vicent Hernández-Chover & Águeda Bellver-Domingo & Lledó Castellet-Viciano & Francesc Hernández-Sancho, 2024. "AI Applied to the Circular Economy: An Approach in the Wastewater Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Chandio, Abbas Ali & Dash, Devi Prasad & Nathaniel, Solomon Prince & Sargani, Ghulam Raza & Jiang, Yuansheng, 2023. "Mitigation pathways towards climate change: Modelling the impact of climatological factors on wheat production in top six regions of China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    6. Ward, Frank A., 2023. "Innovations for the Water Resource Economics Curriculum: Training the Next Generation," Applied Economics Teaching Resources (AETR), Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 5(2), April.
    7. Sinan Erdogan & Ali Acaravci, 2022. "On the Nexus Between Institutions and Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis for Sub-Saharan African Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(4), pages 1857-1892, August.
    8. Munir A. Hanjra & Francis Gichuki, 2008. "Investments in agricultural water management for poverty reduction in Africa: Case studies of Limpopo, Nile, and Volta river basins," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 185-202, August.
    9. Michael Donadelli & Marcus Jüppner & Antonio Paradiso & Christian Schlag, 2021. "Computing Macro-Effects and Welfare Costs of Temperature Volatility: A Structural Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(2), pages 347-394, August.
    10. Nattapong Puttanapong & Amornrat Luenam & Pit Jongwattanakul, 2022. "Spatial Analysis of Inequality in Thailand: Applications of Satellite Data and Spatial Statistics/Econometrics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-25, March.

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