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Public debt accumulation and fiscal consolidation

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  • Kazumasa Oguro
  • Motohiro Sato

Abstract

In this study, we analyse the relationship between interest rates on government bonds (GB) and the fiscal consolidation rule by using an overlapping generation model with endogenous and stochastic growth settings. Our key findings are summarized as follows. First, contrary to conventional view, we find that interest rates on GB may decline as public debt accumulates relative to private capital. Second, the simulation reveals that the economy may exhibit discrete changes with divergent interest rates, implying that the observed trend of relatively low interest rates on GB with public debt accumulation may not continue indefinitely in the future. Third, fiscal consolidation rule plays a key role in determining equilibrium interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazumasa Oguro & Motohiro Sato, 2014. "Public debt accumulation and fiscal consolidation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 663-673, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:7:p:663-673
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2013.851772
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    Cited by:

    1. Yasuoka, Masaya & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2015. "Public Education, Pension and Debt Policy," CIS Discussion paper series 649, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Oguro, Kazumasa & Sato, Motohiro, 2012. "Default Risk on Government Bonds, Deflation, and Inflation," CIS Discussion paper series 537, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Larissa Batrancea, 2020. "The Influence of Public Debt on Performance: Lesson from Romanian Counties," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 809-814, December.
    4. Maebayashi, Noritaka, 2021. "The pace of fiscal consolidations, fiscal sustainability, and welfare: An overlapping generations approach," MPRA Paper 112593, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Feb 2022.
    5. Maebayashi, Noritaka, 2023. "The pace of fiscal consolidations, fiscal sustainability, and welfare: An overlapping generations approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Chun-Ping Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee & GenFu Feng & Shao-Lin Ning, 2016. "Does higher government debt link to higher social expenditure? New method, new evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(16), pages 1429-1451, April.
    7. Kazumasa Oguro & Motohiro Sato, 2014. "Public debt accumulation and fiscal consolidation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 663-673, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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