Default Risk on Government Bonds, Deflation, and Inflation
AbstractThis paper analyzes the impact of deflation and inflation on the real interest rates of GBs using an overlapping generations model with the relationship between the real interest rate of GBs and the fiscal consolidation rule. We find that deflation may lower the real interest rate of GBs to the same level of public debt to capital, even if the fiscal consolidation rule is the same, as opposed to the conventional view that the real interest rate of GBs is determined independent of deflation if the Fisher equation holds. Our results are consistent with how the real interest rates of Japanese GBs react in periods of deflation. This paper also addresses the impact of fiscal inflation (i.e., monetizing all parts of the GB’s default using monetary policy). We calculate the expected fiscal inflation when the default rate in the event of fiscal consolidation is raised. The fiscal inflation may be extremely high if the extent of the required tax increase in fiscal consolidation is low. Initial inflation accelerates the expected fiscal inflation, but initial deflation suppresses it.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series CIS Discussion paper series with number 537.
Length: 27 p.
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Overlapping generations model; real interest rate; fiscal consolidation rule; default risk; fiscal inflation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
- H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
- H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-02-27 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2012-02-27 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2012-02-27 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004. "Sovereign Risk Premia in the European Bond Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Harald Uhlig, 2009.
"A Model of a Systemic Bank Run,"
2009-006, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
- Bernardin Akitoby & Thomas Stratmann, 2006.
"Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets,"
IMF Working Papers
06/16, International Monetary Fund.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000.
"Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
- Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998.
"Optimal Financial Crises,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1245-1284, 08.
- John H. Cochrane, 1998.
"A Frictionless View of U.S. Inflation,"
CRSP working papers
479, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 345-80.
- John H. Cochrane, 2010.
"Understanding Policy in the Great Recession: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic,"
NBER Working Papers
16087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cochrane, John H., 2011. "Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 2-30, January.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
- Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2232, David K. Levine.
- Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
- Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 24, pages 191-240, 04.
- Oguro, Kazumasa & Sato, Motohiro, 2011. "Public Debt Accumulation and Fiscal Consolidation," CIS Discussion paper series 517, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Digital Resources Section, Hitotsubashi University Library).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.