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Public Debt Accumulation and Fiscal Consolidation

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  • Oguro, Kazumasa
  • Sato, Motohiro

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between interest rates on government bonds (GB) and fiscal consolidation rule by using an overlapping generation model with endogenous and stochastic growth settings. Our key findings are summarized as follows. First, interest rates of GB may be declining as public debt accumulates relative to private capital, as opposed to the conventional view that buildup of public debt accompanies a rise in interest rates. Second, fiscal consolidation rule plays a key role in determining interest rates in equilibrium. Third, the economy may exhibit discrete changes with interest rates diverging, implying that our observation of relatively low GB interest rates does not assure the continuation of that trend in the future. Fourth, a preventive tax increase to contain public debt at sustainable levels will not gain the political support of existing generations, whose life span is limited. Citizens prefer to shift the ultimate burden of public debt to future generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguro, Kazumasa & Sato, Motohiro, 2011. "Public Debt Accumulation and Fiscal Consolidation," CIS Discussion paper series 517, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:cisdps:517
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    Cited by:

    1. Yasuoka, Masaya & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2015. "Public Education, Pension and Debt Policy," CIS Discussion paper series 649, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Larissa Batrancea, 2020. "The Influence of Public Debt on Performance: Lesson from Romanian Counties," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 809-814, December.
    3. Kazumasa Oguro & Motohiro Sato, 2014. "Public debt accumulation and fiscal consolidation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 663-673, March.
    4. Maebayashi, Noritaka, 2021. "The pace of fiscal consolidations, fiscal sustainability, and welfare: An overlapping generations approach," MPRA Paper 112593, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Feb 2022.
    5. Oguro, Kazumasa & Sato, Motohiro, 2012. "Default Risk on Government Bonds, Deflation, and Inflation," CIS Discussion paper series 537, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Maebayashi, Noritaka, 2023. "The pace of fiscal consolidations, fiscal sustainability, and welfare: An overlapping generations approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Chun-Ping Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee & GenFu Feng & Shao-Lin Ning, 2016. "Does higher government debt link to higher social expenditure? New method, new evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(16), pages 1429-1451, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overlapping generation model; interest rate on government bond; fiscal consolidation rule; default risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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