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Sovereign risk premia: The link between fiscal rules and stability culture

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  • Osterloh, Steffen
  • Heinemann, Friedrich
  • Kalb, Alexander

Abstract

There is a growing empirical literature studying whether fiscal rules reduce borrowing costs. Nevertheless, it remains an open question whether these rules are effective genuinely or just because they mirror fiscal preferences of politicians and voters. In our analysis of European bond spreads, we shed light on this issue by employing several types of stability preference related proxies. These proxies refer to a country's past stability performance, government characteristics and survey results related to general trust. We find evidence that these preference indicators have an influence on risk premia and dampen the measurable impact of fiscal rules. Yet, the interaction of stability preferences and rules points to a particular potential of fiscal rules in countries with a historically low stability culture. --

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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 80043.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:80043

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Cited by:
  1. Feld, Lars P. & Kalb, Alexander & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Osterloh, Steffen, 2013. "Sovereign bond market reactions to fiscal rules and no-bailout clauses: The Swiss experience," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-034, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Francisco Roch & Leonardo Martinez, 2012. "Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium," IMF Working Papers 12/30, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Matthias Bauer, 2013. "Political Aversion To a Multilateral Fiscal Rule: The Dynamic Commitment Problem in European Fiscal Governance," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 44-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  4. Ciaglia, Sarah & Heinemann, Friedrich, 2012. "Debt rule federalism: The case of Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-067, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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