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Win or Go Home: Why College Football Coaches Get Fired

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  • Paul Holmes

    (State University of New York at Fredonia, Fredonia, NY, USA, paul.holmes@fredonia.edu)

Abstract

Models of dismissals of sports executives frequently ignore the development of expectations regarding performance. The author explores the interplay between these expectations and the coach’s tenure by examining dismissals of college football head coaches from 1983 to 2006. Using a discrete-time hazard model, the author demonstrates that schools use prior performance in two ways: to evaluate the ability of the coach and to establish performance standards for retention. As recent performance is more relevant for estimating ability, the author shows that stronger recent performances decrease the chance of dismissal but stronger historic performances increase the chance of dismissal. Results describe a continual learning process on the part of schools. The author also considers the effects of race, insider-ness, rivalries, and rules violations on retention.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Holmes, 2011. "Win or Go Home: Why College Football Coaches Get Fired," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(2), pages 157-178, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:12:y:2011:i:2:p:157-178
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002510378820
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Deepak Srivastav & Puram Praveen & Rudra Sensarma & Anand Gurumurthy, 2021. "Does salary dispersion affect team performance in cricket? Evidence from the Indian Premier League," Working papers 441, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
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    6. Yvon Rocaboy & Marek Pavlik, 2020. "Performance Expectations of Professional Sport Teams and In-Season Head Coach Dismissals—Evidence from the English and French Men’s Football First Divisions," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Humphreys, Brad R. & Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2016. "Performance expectations and the tenure of head coaches: Evidence from NCAA football," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 482-492.
    8. Gilfix Zach & Meyerson James & Addona Vittorio, 2020. "Longevity differences in the tenures of American and foreign Major League Soccer managers," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 17-26, March.
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    10. Christopher Avery & Brian Cadman & Gavin Cassar, 2016. "Academics vs. Athletics: Career Concerns for NCAA Division I Coaches," NBER Working Papers 22120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Humphreys, Brad & Paul, Rodney & Weinbach, Andrew, 2011. "CEO Turnover: More Evidence on the Role of Performance Expectations," Working Papers 2011-14, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    12. Kurt W. Rotthoff & Kaylyn R. Sanbower, 2016. "Professional ‘amateurs’ in the NCAA: the impact of downstream demand," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 373-376, March.
    13. Ira Horowitz, 2017. "An Efficiency Evaluation of Men’s College Basketball Coaches," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 62(1), pages 77-98, March.
    14. Salaga, Steven & Juravich, Matthew, 2020. "National Football League head coach race, performance, retention, and dismissal," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 978-991.
    15. Lefgren, Lars J. & Platt, Brennan & Price, Joseph & Higbee, Samuel, 2019. "Outcome based accountability: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 121-137.
    16. Andrew P. Davis & Tom R. Leppard & Alexander B. Kinney, 2022. "A shame of inches: Are teams with black head coaches more heavily penalized in Division 1 college football?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(2), pages 259-273, March.
    17. Ken Sanford & Frank Scott, 2016. "Assessing the Intensity of Sports Rivalries Using Data From Secondary Market Transactions," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(2), pages 159-174, February.
    18. Michael A. Roach, 2022. "Career concerns and personnel investment in the Major League Baseball player draft," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 413-426, January.
    19. Marte Bentzen & Göran Kenttä & Pierre-Nicolas Lemyre, 2020. "Elite Football Coaches Experiences and Sensemaking about Being Fired: An Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-13, July.
    20. Yvon Rocaboy & Marek Pavlik, 2019. "Performance expectations of professional sport teams and in-season head coach dismissals: Evidence from the English Premier League and the French Ligue 1 using Monte Carlo simulation," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2019-01, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.

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