IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpep/v2018y2018i3id656p351-374.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Drivers of Non-Performing Loans: A Meta-Regression Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Macháček
  • Aleš Melecký
  • Monika Šulganová

Abstract

Common exposure to macroeconomic risk factors across financial institutions is a source of a systemic risk that influences quality of banks´ loan portfolios. This paper focuses on the growing literature on credit risk determinants. The aim of the paper is to provide more general information on effects of macroeconomic drivers with the use of quantitative meta-analytic techniques. We consider five of the most common macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans ratio. The meta-regression results suggest that there are some significant differences among studies, which could be identified. For instance, data specification, estimation method, number of countries and observations included in the model play a significant role. In some cases, e.g. inflation and exchange rate, the size of the effects presented in journals with impact factor are significantly different from other types of studies included in the analysis. The sub-sample analysis mostly confirms meta-regressions results.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Macháček & Aleš Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2018. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Non-Performing Loans: A Meta-Regression Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(3), pages 351-374.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2018:y:2018:i:3:id:656:p:351-374
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.656
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.656.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.656.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.pep.656?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The overheating of five EU new member states and cyclicality of systemic risk in the banking sector," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 219-232, May.
    2. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    3. Guillaume Vuillemey, 2014. "Solvency vs. liquidity. A decomposition of European banks' credit risk over the business cycle," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 137, pages 32-51.
    4. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2013. "Macroprudential stress testing of credit risk: A practical approach for policy makers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 347-370.
    5. Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
    6. Maria Kasselaki & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Financial soundness indicators and financial crisis episodes," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 623-669, November.
    7. Cifter, Atilla & Yilmazer, Sait & Cifter, Elif, 2009. "Analysis of sectoral credit default cycle dependency with wavelet networks: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1382-1388, November.
    8. Love, Inessa & Turk Ariss, Rima, 2014. "Macro-financial linkages in Egypt: A panel analysis of economic shocks and loan portfolio quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 158-181.
    9. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    10. Glenn Hoggarth & Andrew Logan & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Macro stress tests of UK banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 392-408, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Vazquez, Francisco & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Souto, Marcos, 2012. "A macro stress test model of credit risk for the Brazilian banking sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 69-83.
    12. Irum Saba & Rehana Kouser & Muhammad Azeem, 2012. "Determinants of Non Performing Loans: Case of US Banking Sector," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(44), pages 125-136, June.
    13. Mr. Reinout De Bock & Mr. Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets: Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/071, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2008. "Is bank portfolio riskiness procyclical: Evidence from Italy using a vector autoregression," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 46-63, February.
    15. Tomáš Havránek & Jana Sedlaříková, 2014. "Meta-analýza důchodové elasticity poptávky po penězích [A Meta-Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Money Demand]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(3), pages 366-382.
    16. Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng & Chang Shu, 2005. "Macroeconomic conditions and banking performance in Hong Kong SAR: a panel data study," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 481-97, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 2010/224, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    19. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake, 2011. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Loans in CESEE Countries: A Meta-Analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 69-87.
    20. Richard Podpiera, 2006. "Does Compliance with Basel Core Principles Bring Any Measurable Benefits?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1-5.
    21. Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2005. "The Income Elasticity of Money Demand: A Meta‐Analysis of Empirical Results," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 513-533, July.
    22. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    23. Marcello Bofondi & Tiziano Ropele, 2011. "Macroeconomic determinants of bad loans: evidence from Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 89, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    24. Claudio Borio, 2003. "Towards a Macroprudential Framework for Financial Supervision and Regulation?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 49(2), pages 181-215.
    25. Mejra Festić & Dejan Romih, 2008. "Cyclicality of the banking sector performance and macro environment in the Czech republic, Slovakia and Slovenia," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(2), pages 99-117.
    26. Moscone, Francesco & Tosetti, Elisa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2014. "Real estate market and financial stability in US metropolitan areas: A dynamic model with spatial effects," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 129-146.
    27. Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/161, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:656:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    3. Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.
    4. Chortareas, Georgios & Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2020. "Credit risk and the business cycle: What do we know?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Saom Shawleen Anita & Nishat Tasnova & Nousheen Nawar, 2022. "Are non-performing loans sensitive to macroeconomic determinants? an empirical evidence from banking sector of SAARC countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Teodor Hada & Nicoleta Bărbuță-Mișu & Iulia Cristina Iuga & Dorin Wainberg, 2020. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Nonperforming Loans of Romanian Banks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    7. Gila-Gourgoura, E. & Nikolaidou, E., 2017. "Credit Risk Determinants in the Vulnerable Economies of Europe: Evidence from the Spanish Banking System," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 10(1), pages 60-71, March.
    8. Vasiliki Makri, 2015. "What Triggers Loan Losses? An Empirical Investigation of Greek Financial Sector," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 119-143, july-Dece.
    9. Radivojević, Nikola & Cvijanović, Drago & Sekulic, Dejan & Pavlovic, Dejana & Jovic, Srdjan & Maksimović, Goran, 2019. "Econometric model of non-performing loans determinants," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 520(C), pages 481-488.
    10. Ahlem Selma Messai & Fathi Jouini, 2013. "Micro and Macro Determinants of Non-performing Loan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 852-860.
    11. Petr Jakubik & Eyup Kadioglu, 2022. "Factors affecting bank loan quality: a panel analysis of emerging markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 437-458, July.
    12. Gulati, Rachita & Goswami, Anju & Kumar, Sunil, 2019. "What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 42-62.
    13. Louhichi, Awatef & Boujelbene, Younes, 2016. "Credit risk, managerial behaviour and macroeconomic equilibrium within dual banking systems: Interest-free vs. interest-based banking industries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 104-121.
    14. Koju Laxmi & Wang Shouyang & Abbas Ghulam, 2018. "Do Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Vary with the Income Levels of Countries?," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 6(6), pages 512-531, December.
    15. Maryem Naili & Younes Lahrichi, 2022. "The determinants of banks' credit risk: Review of the literature and future research agenda," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 334-360, January.
    16. Love, Inessa & Turk Ariss, Rima, 2014. "Macro-financial linkages in Egypt: A panel analysis of economic shocks and loan portfolio quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 158-181.
    17. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    18. Us, Vuslat, 2017. "Dynamics of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector by an ownership breakdown: The impact of the global crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 109-117.
    19. Al-Khazali, Osamah M. & Mirzaei, Ali, 2017. "The impact of oil price movements on bank non-performing loans: Global evidence from oil-exporting countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 193-208.
    20. Fatima Zohra Marouf & Zeyneb Guellil, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Credit Risk: The Algerian Banking System," MIC 2017: Managing the Global Economy; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Monastier di Treviso, Italy, 24–27 May 2017,, University of Primorska Press.
    21. Željko Jović, 2017. "Determinants Of Credit Risk – The Case Of Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(212), pages 155-188, January -.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aggregate credit risk; macroeconomic credit risk drivers; non-performing loans ratio; meta-analysis; sub-samples analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2018:y:2018:i:3:id:656:p:351-374. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.