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Credit risk and the business cycle: What do we know?

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  • Chortareas, Georgios
  • Magkonis, Georgios
  • Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria

Abstract

We perform a meta-regression analysis to characterize the relationship between ex post credit risk, measured through non-performing loans and real GDP growth. Although the prior empirical literature reveals a statistically significant inverse association, the precise effect of growth performance to credit quality diverges and remains subject to several qualifications. Using estimates from 56 studies and applying a Bayesian meta-regression analysis we explore the systematic patterns of the heterogeneity in the reported estimates. According to our evidence, the specification form as well as features related to the type of data, and the sample period are factors that systematically influence the estimated results.

Suggested Citation

  • Chortareas, Georgios & Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2020. "Credit risk and the business cycle: What do we know?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:67:y:2020:i:c:s1057521918307579
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2019.101421
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    1. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Olawale Akinyele & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Determinants of nonperforming loans after recapitalization in the Nigerian banking industry: Does efficiency matter?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1509-1524, September.
    2. Mariagrazia Fallanca & Antonio Fabio Forgione & Edoardo Otranto, 2021. "Do the Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Have a Different Effect over Time? A Conditional Correlation Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Zhang, Dongyang & Guo, Rui, 2020. "The consumption response to household leverage in China: The role of investment at household level," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2022. "Measuring financial cycles: Empirical evidence for Germany, United Kingdom and United States of America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-630.
    5. Yfanti, Stavroula & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zopounidis, Constantin & Christopoulos, Apostolos, 2023. "Corporate credit risk counter-cyclical interdependence: A systematic analysis of cross-border and cross-sector correlation dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 813-831.
    6. Chuluunbayar, Delgerjargal, 2020. "Macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans in Mongolia: the influence of currency mismatch and bank size," MPRA Paper 101843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Baker, H. Kent & Kumar, Satish & Goyal, Kirti & Sharma, Anuj, 2021. "International review of financial analysis: A retrospective evaluation between 1992 and 2020," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-performing loans; Credit risk; Macro-stress testing; Business cycles; Meta-analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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