IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/beo/journl/v62y2017i212p155-188.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants Of Credit Risk – The Case Of Serbia

Author

Listed:
  • Željko Jović

Abstract

This paper examines systemic and specific factors that increased the credit risk level in the Serbian banking sector between 2008 and 2014, by applying the vector autoregression model (VAR), logit and probit. Business cycle and RSD depreciation are the most important systemic determinants of credit risk in the corporate sector, while in the retail sector these determinants represent a deterioration of the business and financial situation, based on a rise in the unemployment rate and nonperforming loans, together with domestic currency depreciation and the effects of the solidarity tax. Banks that entered the crisis with a lower level of capital, higher level of portfolio concentration in their 50 biggest borrowers, and with restrictions on the owner supporting the bank by providing additional capital in the period of credit risk increase, have been more exposed to default and more inclined to overestimate their good assets in their reports. The influence of RSD depreciation and the economic interrelation of clients represent an increase in the credit risk level.

Suggested Citation

  • Željko Jović, 2017. "Determinants Of Credit Risk – The Case Of Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(212), pages 155-188, January -.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:62:y:2017:i:212:p:155-188
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ekof.bg.ac.rs/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/4471.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    2. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 2010/224, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Pestova Anna & Mamonov Mikhail, 2013. "Macroeconomic and bank?specific determinants of credit risk: evidence from Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 13/10e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    4. Jarrow, Robert A. & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2000. "The intersection of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 271-299, January.
    5. Mr. Reinout De Bock & Mr. Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets: Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/071, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    7. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    8. Ongena, Steven & Smith, David C., 2001. "The duration of bank relationships," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 449-475, September.
    9. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    10. Podpiera, Jiri & Weill, Laurent, 2008. "Bad luck or bad management? Emerging banking market experience," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 135-148, June.
    11. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    12. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
    13. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1997. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and The Real Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(3), pages 663-691.
    14. Allen N. Berger & Asli Demirgüč-Kunt & Joseph G. Haubrich & Ross Levine, 2004. "Introduction: Bank concentration and competition: an evolution in the making," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 433-451.
    15. Bostjan Aver, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Credit Risk Factors of the Slovenian Banking System," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 6(3), pages 317-334.
    16. Nir Klein, 2013. "Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 2013/072, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Berger, Allen N, et al, 2004. "Bank Concentration and Competition: An Evolution in the Making," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 433-451, June.
    18. Eftychia Nikolaidou & Sofoklis Vogiazas, 2014. "Credit Risk Determinants for the Bulgarian Banking System," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 87-102, February.
    19. DeYoung, Robert & Glennon, Dennis & Nigro, Peter, 2008. "Borrower-lender distance, credit scoring, and loan performance: Evidence from informational-opaque small business borrowers," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 113-143, January.
    20. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    21. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    22. Grigori Fainstein & Igor Novikov, 2011. "The Comparative Analysis of Credit Risk Determinants In the Banking Sector of the Baltic States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 20-45, June.
    23. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
    24. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
    25. Miloš Božović & Branko Urošević & Boško Živković, 2009. "On The Spillover Of Exchangerate Risk Into Default Risk," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 54(183), pages 32-55, October -.
    26. Fofack, Hippolyte L., 2005. "Nonperforming loans in Sub-Saharan Africa : causal analysis and macroeconomic implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3769, The World Bank.
    27. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    28. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-37, March.
    29. Chan, Yuk-Shee & Kanatas, George, 1985. "Asymmetric Valuations and the Role of Collateral in Loan Agreements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 84-95, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    2. Florian Manz, 2019. "Determinants of non-performing loans: What do we know? A systematic review and avenues for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 351-389, November.
    3. Brei, Michael & Jacolin, Luc & Noah, Alphonse, 2020. "Credit risk and bank competition in Sub-Saharan Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    4. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    5. Gulati, Rachita & Goswami, Anju & Kumar, Sunil, 2019. "What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 42-62.
    6. Ghosh, Amit, 2017. "Sector-specific analysis of non-performing loans in the US banking system and their macroeconomic impact," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 29-45.
    7. Md. Shahidul Islam & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2016. "The Determinants of Non-performing Loans: Dynamic Panel Evidence from South Asian Countries," TERG Discussion Papers 353, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    8. Saom Shawleen Anita & Nishat Tasnova & Nousheen Nawar, 2022. "Are non-performing loans sensitive to macroeconomic determinants? an empirical evidence from banking sector of SAARC countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, December.
    9. Maryem Naili & Younes Lahrichi, 2022. "The determinants of banks' credit risk: Review of the literature and future research agenda," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 334-360, January.
    10. Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.
    11. Md. Shahidul Islam & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2017. "Is this adverse selection or something else to determine the non-performing loans? Dynamic panel evidence from South Asian countries," Discussion Papers 1723, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    12. Rahbar , Farhad & Behzadi Soufiani , Mohsen, 2021. "The Impact of Macroeconomic and Banking Variables on Non-Performing Loans in Oil Cycles: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 16(2), pages 135-164, June.
    13. Muhammad Waqas & Nudrat Fatima & Aryan Khan & Muhammad Arif, 2017. "Determinants of Non-performing Loans: A Comparative Study of Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 6(1), pages 51-68, January.
    14. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    15. Petr Jakubik & Eyup Kadioglu, 2022. "Factors affecting bank loan quality: a panel analysis of emerging markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 437-458, July.
    16. den Haan, Wouter J. & Ramey, Garey & Watson, Joel, 2003. "Liquidity flows and fragility of business enterprises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1215-1241, September.
    17. Iulia Andreea Bucur & Simona Elena Dragomirescu, 2014. "The Influence Of Macroeconomic Conditions On Credit Risk: Case Of Romanian Banking System," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 19.
    18. Bogdan Florin FILIP, 2017. "Lessons From The Impact Of Internal And Macroeconomic Determinants Of Bad Loans In Cee Banks," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4, pages 198-212.
    19. Ameni Tarchouna & Bilel Jarraya & Abdelfettah Bouri, 2022. "Do board characteristics and ownership structure matter for bank non-performing loans? Empirical evidence from US commercial banks," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 26(2), pages 479-518, June.
    20. Us, Vuslat, 2017. "Dynamics of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector by an ownership breakdown: The impact of the global crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 109-117.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Risk; NPL; Default; Systemic and Specific Determinants of Credit Risk; Business and Credit Cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:62:y:2017:i:212:p:155-188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Goran Petrić (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efbeoyu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.