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Bad luck or bad management? emerging banking market experience

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  • Jirí Podpiera
  • Laurent Weill

Abstract

A large number of bank failures occurred in transition countries during the 1990s and at the beginning of the 2000s. These were related to increases in non-performing loans and deteriorated cost efficiency of banks. This paper addresses the question of the causality between non-performing loans and cost efficiency in order to examine whether either of these factors is the deep determinant of bank failures. We extend the Granger-causality model developed by [Berger, A., DeYoung, R., 1997. Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks. J. Banking Finance 21, 849-870] by applying GMM dynamic panel estimators on a panel of Czech banks between 1994 and 2005. Our findings support the bad management hypothesis, according to which deteriorations in cost efficiency precede increases in non-performing loans. Banking supervisors should consequently focus on enhanced cost efficiency of banks in order to reduce the likelihood of bank failures in transition countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series ULB Institutional Repository with number 2013/14305.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Publication status: Published in: Journal of Financial Stability (2008) v.4,p.135-148
Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/14305

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References

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  1. Berger, Allen N. & DeYoung, Robert, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 849-870, June.
  2. Anca Podpiera & Jiri Podpiera, 2005. "Deteriorating Cost Efficiency in Commercial Banks Signals an Increasing Risk of Failure," Working Papers 2005/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  4. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1995. "Evaluating the efficiency of commercial banks: does our view of what banks do matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 39-52.
  5. Berger, Allen N. & Leusner, John H. & Mingo, John J., 1997. "The efficiency of bank branches," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-162, September.
  6. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  7. Laurent Weill, 2003. "Banking efficiency in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(3), pages 569-592, 09.
  8. Williams, Jonathan, 2004. "Determining management behaviour in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2427-2460, October.
  9. Richard S. BARR & Lawrence M. SEIFORD & Thomas F. SIEMS, 1994. "Forecasting Bank Failure : A Non-Parametric Frontier Estimation Approach," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1994041, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  10. Bonin, John P. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Wachtel, Paul, 2004. "Bank performance, efficiency and ownership in transitition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Nir Klein, 2013. "Non-Performing Loans in CESEE," IMF Working Papers 13/72, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, Anastasia I. & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel C., 2011. "Efficiency under quantile regression: What is the relationship with risk in the EU banking industry?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 84-95, May.
  3. Benjamin M. Tabak & Giovana L. Craveiro & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2011. "Bank Efficiency and Default in Brazil: Causality Tests," Working Papers Series 253, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Inessa Love & Rima Turk Ariss, 2013. "Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality," Working Papers 201310, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  5. Shen, Chung-Hua & Chen, Ting-Hsuan, 2010. "Estimating banking cost efficiency with the consideration of cost management," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 424-435, November.
  6. Faiçal Belaid, 2014. "Loan quality determinants: evaluating the contribution of bank-specific variables, macroeconomic factors and firm level information," IHEID Working Papers 04-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  7. Roman Horvath & Jakub Seidler & Laurent Weill, 2012. "Banks' Capital and Liquidity Creation: Granger Causality Evidence," Working Papers 2012/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  8. Sándor Gardó, 2010. "Bank Governance and Financial Stability in CESEE: A Review of the Literature," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 6-31.
  9. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
  10. Roman Horváth, 2009. "The Determinants of the Interest Rate Margins of Czech Banks," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(2), pages 128-136, June.
  11. Anastasia Koutsomanoli-Filippaki & Emmanuel Mamatzakis, 2009. "Performance and Merton-Type Default Risk of Listed Banks in EU: a panel VAR approach," Discussion Paper Series 2009_09, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2009.
  12. Pessarossi , Pierre & Weill , Laurent, 2013. "Do capital requirements affect bank efficiency? Evidence from China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 28/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  13. Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kowalewski, Oskar & Kozłowski, Łukasz, 2013. "The influence of political factors on commercial banks in Central European countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 759-777.
  14. George Assaf, A. & Matousek, Roman & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2013. "Turkish bank efficiency: Bayesian estimation with undesirable outputs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 506-517.
  15. Anton Belgrave & Kester Guy & Mahalia Jackman, 2012. "Industry Specific Shocks and Non-Performing Loans in Barbados," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(2), pages 123-133, December.

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