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Bad Luck or Bad Management? Emerging Banking Market Experience

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  • Jiri Podpiera
  • Laurent Weill

Abstract

A large number of bank failures occurred in transition countries during the 1990s and at the beginning of the 2000s. These failures were related to increases in non-performing loans and deteriorated cost efficiency of banks. This paper addresses the question of the causality between non-performing loans and cost efficiency in order to examine whether either of these factors is the deep determinant of bank failures. We extend the Granger causality model developed by Berger and DeYoung (1997) by applying GMM dynamic panel estimators on a panel of Czech banks between 1994 and 2005. Our findings support the “bad management†hypothesis, according to which deteriorations in cost efficiency precede increases in non-performing loans, and reject the “bad luck†hypothesis, which predicts the reverse causality.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2007/5.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2007/5

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Keywords: Bank failures; cost efficiency; non-performing loans; transition countries.;

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  1. Allen N. Berger & Robert DeYoung, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Anca Podpiera & Jiri Podpiera, 2005. "Deteriorating Cost Efficiency in Commercial Banks Signals an Increasing Risk of Failure," Working Papers 2005/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Berger, Allen N. & Leusner, John H. & Mingo, John J., 1997. "The efficiency of bank branches," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-162, September.
  4. Laurent Weill, 2003. "Banking efficiency in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(3), pages 569-592, 09.
  5. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1995. "Evaluating the efficiency of commercial banks: does our view of what banks do matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 39-52.
  6. Williams, Jonathan, 2004. "Determining management behaviour in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2427-2460, October.
  7. Bonin, John P. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Wachtel, Paul, 2005. "Bank performance, efficiency and ownership in transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 31-53, January.
  8. Richard S. BARR & Lawrence M. SEIFORD & Thomas F. SIEMS, 1994. "Forecasting Bank Failure : A Non-Parametric Frontier Estimation Approach," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1994041, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  9. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Roman Horváth, 2009. "The Determinants of the Interest Rate Margins of Czech Banks," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(2), pages 128-136, June.
  2. Inessa Love & Rima Turk Ariss, 2013. "Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality," Working Papers 201310, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  3. Horváth, Roman & Seidler, Jakub & Weill, Laurent, 2012. "Bank capital and liquidity creation: Granger-causality evidence," Working Paper Series 1497, European Central Bank.
  4. Dimitrios P. Louzis & Aggelos T. Vouldis & Vasilios L. Metaxas, 2010. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: a comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Working Papers 118, Bank of Greece.
  5. Nir Klein, 2013. "Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 13/72, International Monetary Fund.
  6. George Assaf, A. & Matousek, Roman & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2013. "Turkish bank efficiency: Bayesian estimation with undesirable outputs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 506-517.
  7. Gardó, Sándor, 2010. "Bank Governance and Financial Stability in CESEE: A Review of the Literature," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1.
  8. Inessa Love & Rima Turk Ariss, 2013. "Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality," IMF Working Papers 13/271, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, Anastasia I. & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel C., 2011. "Efficiency under quantile regression: What is the relationship with risk in the EU banking industry?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 84-95, May.
  10. Anton Belgrave & Kester Guy & Mahalia Jackman, 2012. "Industry Specific Shocks and Non-Performing Loans in Barbados," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(2), pages 123-133, December.
  11. Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kowalewski, Oskar & Kozłowski, Łukasz, 2013. "The influence of political factors on commercial banks in Central European countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 759-777.
  12. Pessarossi , Pierre & Weill , Laurent, 2013. "Do capital requirements affect bank efficiency? Evidence from China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 28/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  13. Benjamin M. Tabak & Giovana L. Craveiro & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2011. "Bank Efficiency and Default in Brazil: Causality Tests," Working Papers Series 253, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  14. Shen, Chung-Hua & Chen, Ting-Hsuan, 2010. "Estimating banking cost efficiency with the consideration of cost management," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 424-435, November.
  15. Faiçal Belaid, 2014. "Loan quality determinants: evaluating the contribution of bank-specific variables, macroeconomic factors and firm level information," IHEID Working Papers 04-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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