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Cyclicality of the banking sector performance and macro environment in the Czech republic, Slovakia and Slovenia

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  • Mejra Festić
  • Dejan Romih

Abstract

An exposure to macroeconomic risk factors across banks is a source of systemic risk that influences the banking sector performance. In this paper, we present some evidence on macroeconomic variables affecting the non-performing loans (NPL) ratio in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia. The GDP growth might have improved borrowers' ability to serve their bank loans in Slovenia, meanwhile the accelerating NPL ratio dynamics has failed to support the hypothesis that the GDP growth fosters an improvement in the NPL ratio in the case of Slovakia. Meanwhile deceleration in the NPL ratio on export impulses has supported a procyclical theory in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia. The response of non-performing loans to inflation supports the hypothesis about the lowering inflation that decelerates the NPL ratio. Savings have accelerated the NPL ratio in the case of Slovakia and Slovenia. The banking sector performance is possibly reflecting a favourable assessment of the economic growth and an increasing indebtedness of private sector could become causes of concern if the macroeconomic environment should develop less favourably.

Suggested Citation

  • Mejra Festić & Dejan Romih, 2008. "Cyclicality of the banking sector performance and macro environment in the Czech republic, Slovakia and Slovenia," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(2), pages 99-117.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2008:y:2008:i:2:id:323:p:99-117
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.323
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomáš Tichý, 2010. "Posouzení odhadu měnového rizika portfolia pomocí Lévyho modelů [Examination of Portfolio Currency Risk Estimation by Means of Lévy Models]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(4), pages 504-521.
    2. Martin Macháček & Aleš Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2018. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Non-Performing Loans: A Meta-Regression Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(3), pages 351-374.
    3. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    4. Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.
    5. Josheski Dushko & Eftimoski Dimitar, 2016. "Application of Is-Mp-Ia Model and Taylor Rule to Cesee Economies," Economics and Culture, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 5-13, June.
    6. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:656:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Vasiliki Makri, 2015. "What Triggers Loan Losses? An Empirical Investigation of Greek Financial Sector," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 119-143, july-Dece.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; non-performing loans; macro impulses; cyclicality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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