Evidence on the importance of spatial voting models in presidential nominations and elections

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Evidence on the importance of spatial voting models in presidential nominations and elections

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Lawrence Kenny ()
Babak Lotfinia

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Lawrence W. Kenny

Abstract

ADA scores and Nominate scores are used for the first time to examine the influence of spatial voting records on which candidate wins the party’s presidential nomination and on which nominee wins the general election. We find that the most conservative Republican candidate and moderately liberal Democrats were most likely to win their party’s nomination. For general elections we find that the candidate’s spatial record has nearly as much impact on the outcome as economic growth, which has been the focus of most past empirical research. The nominee whose voting record is more moderate is more likely to be elected. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 123 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 439-462
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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:123:y:2005:i:3:p:439-462

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References listed on IDEAS
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Schmidt, Amy B & Kenny, Lawrence W & Morton, Rebecca B, 1996. "Evidence on Electoral Accountability in the U.S. Senate: Are Unfaithful Agents Really Punished?," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 545-67, July.
Cooper, Alexandra & Munger, Michael C, 2000. " The (Un)Predictability of Primaries with Many Candidates: Simulation Evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 103(3-4), pages 337-55, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Peltzman, Sam, 1984. "Constituent Interest and Congressional Voting," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 181-210, April.
Peltzman, Sam, 1990. "How Efficient Is the Voting Market?," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 27-63, April.
Other versions:
- Sam Peltzman, 1988. "How Efficient Is the Voting Market?," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 53, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
Jung, Gi-Ryong & Kenny, Lawrence W. & Lott, John Jr., 1994. "An explanation for why senators from the same state vote differently so frequently," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 65-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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