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Evaluating the Median Voter Model’s Explanatory Power

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  • David Stadelmann
  • Marco Portmann
  • Reiner Eichenberger

Abstract

We match individual senators’ voting behavior on legislative proposals with 24 real referenda decisions on exactly the same issues with identical wording. This setting allows us to evaluate the median voter model’s quality with revealed constituents’ preferences. Results indicate a limited explanatory power of the median voter model: It explains 17.6 percentage points more than random voting and a senator’s probability to accept a proposal in parliament increases on average by 8.4 percentage points when the district median voter accepts the proposal.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA) in its series CREMA Working Paper Series with number 2011-15.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cra:wpaper:2011-15

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Keywords: Median Voter Model; Political Representation; Constituents’ Preferences;

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