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Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Prices in Italy: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Bruno Bosco
  • Lucia Parisio
  • Matteo Pelagatti

Abstract

In this paper we analyze a time series of daily average prices in the Italian electricity market, which started to operate as a Pool in April 2004. Our objective is to model the high degree of autocorrelation and the multiple seasonalities in electricity prices. We use periodic time series models with GARCH disturbances and leptokurtic distributions and compare their performance with more classical ARMA-GARCH processes. The within-year seasonal variation is modelled using the low-frequency components of physical quantities, which are very regular throughout the sample. Our results reveal that much of the variability in the price series is explained by the interactions between deterministic multiple seasonalities. Periodic AR-GARCH models seem to perform quite well in mimicking the features of the stochastic part of the price process. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti, 2007. "Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Prices in Italy: An Empirical Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(4), pages 415-432, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:4:p:415-432:10.1007/s11294-007-9105-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-007-9105-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius & Carnero, M. Angeles, 2007. "Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMAGARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 16-27, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity auctions; Periodic time series; Conditional heteroskedasticity; Multiple seasonalities; C22; D44; L94; Q40;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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