IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/compec/v50y2017i3d10.1007_s10614-016-9601-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertain Potential Output and Simple Rules in Small Open Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Traficante

    (Università Europea di Roma)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of incomplete information for the conduct of monetary policy in small-open economy. I use a standard theoretical DSGE model to evaluate the performance of simple rules, including the exchange rate peg. Incomplete information is modeled assuming that the central bank and the private sector observe domestic inflation and output with a measurement error, while they do not observe potential output. I show that not reacting to the exchange rate yields better outcomes in terms of a standard loss function. For the case of complete information and incomplete information, I quantify for which parameter configuration a Taylor rule reacting to both the exchange rate and the domestic inflation rate yields a higher loss than the fixed exchange rate regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Traficante, 2017. "Uncertain Potential Output and Simple Rules in Small Open Economy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(3), pages 517-531, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:50:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10614-016-9601-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-016-9601-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10614-016-9601-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10614-016-9601-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dennis, Richard & Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2009. "Methods for robust control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1604-1616, August.
    2. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    3. Di Giorgio, Giorgio & Traficante, Guido, 2013. "The loss from uncertainty on policy targets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 175-182.
    4. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    6. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
    7. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    8. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2007. "Interest rate rules for fixed exchange rate regimes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2196-2211, July.
    9. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2003. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1611-1638, July.
    10. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2014. "Monetary regime choice in Singapore: Would a Taylor rule outperform exchange-rate management?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 63-81.
    11. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "Endogenous monetary policy with unobserved potential output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1951-1983, November.
    12. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 691-720, April.
    13. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    14. Greg Tkacz, 2010. "An Uncertain Past: Data Revisions and Monetary Policy in Canada," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2010(Spring), pages 41-51.
    15. Mirco Soffritti & Francesco Zanetti, 2008. "The advantage of tying one's hands: revisited," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 135-149.
    16. Dennis, Richard & Ravenna, Federico, 2008. "Learning and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1964-1994, June.
    17. Berger, Wolfram, 2006. "The choice between fixed and flexible exchange rates: Which is best for a small open economy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 371-385, May.
    18. Ravenna, Federico, 2012. "Why Join A Currency Union? A Note On The Impact Of Beliefs On The Choice Of Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 320-334, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guido Traficante, 2021. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 955-973, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guido Traficante, 2021. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 955-973, November.
    2. Di Giorgio, Giorgio & Traficante, Guido, 2013. "The loss from uncertainty on policy targets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 175-182.
    3. Sra Chuenchoksan & Don Nakornthab & Surach Tanboon, 2008. "Uncertainty in the Estimation of Potential Output and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2008-04, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    4. Simona Delle Chiaie, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Potential Output Uncertainty: A Quantitative Assessment," CEIS Research Paper 94, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    5. Michael Scharnagl & Christina Gerberding & Franz Seitz, 2010. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Money Growth? New Results for the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 409-441, December.
    6. Givens, Gregory E. & Salemi, Michael K., 2015. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 190-208.
    7. Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2007. "The Great Inflation of the 1970s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 713-731, March.
    8. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "Endogenous monetary policy with unobserved potential output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1951-1983, November.
    9. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2003. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 353-370.
    10. Cavoli, Tony, 2009. "Is fear of floating justified?: The East Asia experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16.
    11. Kugler, Peter & Jordan, Thomas J. & Lenz, Carlos & Savioz, Marcel R., 2005. "GDP data revisions and forward-looking monetary policy in Switzerland," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 351-372, December.
    12. Alex Cukierman, 2009. "The Limits of Transparency," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(1‐2), pages 1-37, February.
    13. Francesco Lippi, 2003. "Monetary policy with unobservedpotential output," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 258-275, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Lippi, Francesco & Gerali, Andrea, 2003. "Optimal Control and Filtering in Linear Forward-looking Economies: A Toolkit," CEPR Discussion Papers 3706, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2014. "Monetary regime choice in Singapore: Would a Taylor rule outperform exchange-rate management?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 63-81.
    16. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2016. "Conducting Monetary Policy in South Asian Economies: An Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 161-190.
    17. Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Assessment criteria for output gap estimates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 529-562, May.
    18. Roberto M. Billi, 2020. "Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 125-152, March.
    19. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    20. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:573:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Marcelo Sanchez, 2008. "The link between interest rates and exchange rates: do contractionary depreciations make a difference?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 43-61.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Small open economy; Exchange rate regime; Monetary policy rules; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:50:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10614-016-9601-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.