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Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy in small open economy

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  • Traficante, Guido

Abstract

A huge literature analyzes the performance of simple rules in closed-economy models when the policy-maker observes only a noisy measure of the state of the economy. This paper extends the analysis to a small-open economy new keynesian model. Passing from a closed-economy model to an open-economy one, there is another simple policy rule available to the central bank, namely the exchange rate peg. Hence, evaluating the performance of simple rules allows us to assess if the choice of the exchange rate regime depends on the uncertainty about the true state of the economy. Evaluating the conduct of monetary policy in terms of a Taylor rule, this paper shows that not reacting to the exchange rate yields better outcomes in terms of a standard loss function and quantifies for which parameter configuration in terms of the reaction to the exchange rate and the domestic inflation rate, the fixed exchange rate regime is to be preferred. The analysis is done both with complete and with incomplete information.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series Dynare Working Papers with number 22.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:022

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Keywords: small open economy; exchange rate regime; monetary policy rules; uncertainty;

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References

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  1. Kai Leitemo & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
  3. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
  4. Michael Ehrmann and Frank Smets, 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 8, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
  8. Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker & Williams, John C., 2003. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  9. Onatski, Alexei & Williams, Noah, 2002. "Modeling model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0169, European Central Bank.
  10. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2000. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Berger, Wolfram, 2006. "The choice between fixed and flexible exchange rates: Which is best for a small open economy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 371-385, May.
  12. Andrew T. Levin & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Working Paper Series 2003-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Michael Woodford & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2004. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare: The Case of a Distorted Steady State," 2004 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Interest Rate Rules for Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 468, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 13 Oct 2003.
  15. Mirco Soffritti & Francesco Zanetti, 2008. "The advantage of tying one's hands: revisited," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 135-149.
  16. Bianca De Paoli, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0639, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  17. Jordi Gal� & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
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