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An Uncertain Past: Data Revisions and Monetary Policy in Canada

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Many important economic variables are subject to revision. This article explains how, when, and why such revisions occur; how revisions to Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) compare with GDP revisions in some other countries; which GDP components are subject to the largest revisions; and how data revisions can affect policy decisions. The author finds that revisions to Canadian GDP tend to be smaller, on average, than those of some other countries, and that among the GDP components, exports and imports are most heavily revised.

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  • Greg Tkacz, 2010. "An Uncertain Past: Data Revisions and Monetary Policy in Canada," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2010(Spring), pages 41-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:2010:y:2010:i:spring10:p:41-51
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    Cited by:

    1. Gino Cateau & Malik Shukayev, 2022. "Limited commitment, endogenous credibility and the challenges of price‐level targeting," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 1834-1861, November.
    2. Matteo Cacciatore & Dmitry Matveev & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2022. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature," Discussion Papers 2022-9, Bank of Canada.
    3. Smith Paul, 2016. "Nowcasting UK GDP during the depression," Working Papers 1606, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    4. Greg Tkacz, 2013. "Predicting Recessions in Real-Time: Mining Google Trends and Electronic Payments Data for Clues," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 387, September.
    5. Galbraith, John W. & Tkacz, Greg, 2015. "Nowcasting GDP with electronic payments data," Statistics Paper Series 10, European Central Bank.
    6. Guido Traficante, 2017. "Uncertain Potential Output and Simple Rules in Small Open Economy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(3), pages 517-531, October.
    7. Xueting Yu & Yuhan Zhu & Guangming Lv, 2020. "Analysis of the Impact of China’s GDP Data Revision on Monetary Policy from the Perspective of Uncertainty," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(6), pages 1251-1274, May.
    8. Sharon Kozicki & Jill Vardy, 2017. "Communicating Uncertainty in Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 17-14, Bank of Canada.
    9. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2013. "Nowcasting GDP: Electronic Payments, Data Vintages and the Timing of Data Releases," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-25, CIRANO.

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