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A Model of Primary and Secondary Waves in Investment Cycles

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  • Guido Fioretti

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Abstract

Schumpeter maintained that oscillations of macroeconomic variables are only the “secondary wave” of business cycles, a reflex of more fundamental “primary waves” at the microeconomic level caused by the innovative activity of entrepreneurs. Uniting Schumpeter’s concern for innovation with Keynes’ concern for uncertainty and expectations formation, this article focuses on the behaviour of entrepreneurs confronting uncertainty caused by innovation. Entrepreneurs’ behaviour is reconstructed by modelling the functioning of their cognitive processes when innovations appear. Recognition of the possibilities opened up by a successful innovation generates a state of optimism in the minds of single entrepreneurs, which eventually propagates to the whole economy triggering an investments upswing. Likewise, unsuccessful innovations can trigger a downswing. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Computational Economics in its journal Computational Economics.

Volume (Year): 24 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (June)
Pages: 357-381

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Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:24:y:2005:i:4:p:357-381

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100248
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Keywords: biotech; cognitive maps; innovation; investments; uncertainty;

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Cited by:
  1. Amitrajeet Batabyal & Hamid Beladi, 2010. "A model of entrepreneurial activity with two actions over time and under uncertainty," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 45-54, July.
  2. Schmoch, Ulrich, 2007. "Double-boom cycles and the comeback of science-push and market-pull," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1000-1015, September.

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