IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i20p13642-d949314.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using Industry 4.0’s Big Data and IoT to Perform Feature-Based and Past Data-Based Energy Consumption Predictions

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Gumz

    (Department of Production Engineering, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis 88040-900, Brazil)

  • Diego Castro Fettermann

    (Department of Production Engineering, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis 88040-900, Brazil)

  • Enzo Morosini Frazzon

    (Department of Production Engineering, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis 88040-900, Brazil)

  • Mirko Kück

    (Department of Production Engineering, Universität Bremen, 28359 Bremen, Germany)

Abstract

Industry 4.0 and its technologies allow advancements in communications, production and management efficiency across several segments. In smart grids, essential parts of smart cities, smart meters act as IoT devices that can gather data and help the management of the sustainable energy matrix, a challenge that is faced worldwide. This work aims to use smart meter data and household features data to seek the most appropriate methods of energy consumption prediction. Using the Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) method, Python Platform, and several prediction methods, prediction experiments were performed with household feature data and past consumption data of over 470 smart meters that gathered data for three years. Support vector machines, random forest regression, and neural networks were the best prediction methods among the ones tested in the sample. The results help utilities (companies that maintain the infrastructure for public services) to offer better contracts to new households and to manage their smart grid infrastructure based on the forecasted demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Gumz & Diego Castro Fettermann & Enzo Morosini Frazzon & Mirko Kück, 2022. "Using Industry 4.0’s Big Data and IoT to Perform Feature-Based and Past Data-Based Energy Consumption Predictions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-34, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:20:p:13642-:d:949314
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/20/13642/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/20/13642/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Faruqui, Ahmad & Harris, Dan & Hledik, Ryan, 2010. "Unlocking the [euro]53 billion savings from smart meters in the EU: How increasing the adoption of dynamic tariffs could make or break the EU's smart grid investment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6222-6231, October.
    2. Li, Ling, 2018. "China's manufacturing locus in 2025: With a comparison of “Made-in-China 2025” and “Industry 4.0”," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 66-74.
    3. Hilary S. Boudet, 2019. "Public perceptions of and responses to new energy technologies," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 446-455, June.
    4. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    5. Buchanan, Kathryn & Banks, Nick & Preston, Ian & Russo, Riccardo, 2016. "The British public’s perception of the UK smart metering initiative: Threats and opportunities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 87-97.
    6. Zhang, Tao & Siebers, Peer-Olaf & Aickelin, Uwe, 2016. "Simulating user learning in authoritative technology adoption: An agent based model for council-led smart meter deployment planning in the UK," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 74-84.
    7. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    8. Nikhlesh Pathik & Rajeev Kumar Gupta & Yatendra Sahu & Ashutosh Sharma & Mehedi Masud & Mohammed Baz, 2022. "AI Enabled Accident Detection and Alert System Using IoT and Deep Learning for Smart Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-24, June.
    9. Hug March & Álvaro-Francisco Morote & Antonio-Manuel Rico & David Saurí, 2017. "Household Smart Water Metering in Spain: Insights from the Experience of Remote Meter Reading in Alicante," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Vinoth Kumar Ponnusamy & Padmanathan Kasinathan & Rajvikram Madurai Elavarasan & Vinoth Ramanathan & Ranjith Kumar Anandan & Umashankar Subramaniam & Aritra Ghosh & Eklas Hossain, 2021. "A Comprehensive Review on Sustainable Aspects of Big Data Analytics for the Smart Grid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-35, December.
    11. Kück, Mirko & Freitag, Michael, 2021. "Forecasting of customer demands for production planning by local k-nearest neighbor models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    12. George Lăzăroiu & Luminița Ionescu & Mihai Andronie & Irina Dijmărescu, 2020. "Sustainability Management and Performance in the Urban Corporate Economy: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-13, September.
    13. Shan Zhou & Douglas S. Noonan, 2019. "Justice Implications of Clean Energy Policies and Programs in the United States: A Theoretical and Empirical Exploration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, February.
    14. Arora, Siddharth & Taylor, James W., 2016. "Forecasting electricity smart meter data using conditional kernel density estimation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 47-59.
    15. Fekri, Mohammad Navid & Patel, Harsh & Grolinger, Katarina & Sharma, Vinay, 2021. "Deep learning for load forecasting with smart meter data: Online Adaptive Recurrent Neural Network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    16. Jung-Hoon Kim & Joo-Young Kim, 2022. "How Should the Structure of Smart Cities Change to Predict and Overcome a Pandemic?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-17, March.
    17. Souhaib Ben Taieb & James W. Taylor & Rob J. Hyndman, 2021. "Hierarchical Probabilistic Forecasting of Electricity Demand With Smart Meter Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(533), pages 27-43, March.
    18. Buryk, Stephen & Mead, Doug & Mourato, Susana & Torriti, Jacopo, 2015. "Investigating preferences for dynamic electricity tariffs: The effect of environmental and system benefit disclosure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 190-195.
    19. Campillo, Javier & Dahlquist, Erik & Wallin, Fredrik & Vassileva, Iana, 2016. "Is real-time electricity pricing suitable for residential users without demand-side management?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 310-325.
    20. Tatiana Tucunduva Philippi Cortese & Jairo Filho Sousa de Almeida & Giseli Quirino Batista & José Eduardo Storopoli & Aaron Liu & Tan Yigitcanlar, 2022. "Understanding Sustainable Energy in the Context of Smart Cities: A PRISMA Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-38, March.
    21. Babai, Zied & Boylan, John E. & Kolassa, Stephan & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2016. "Supply chain forecasting: Theory, practice, their gap and the futureAuthor-Name: Syntetos, Aris A," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 1-26.
    22. Ellabban, Omar & Abu-Rub, Haitham, 2016. "Smart grid customers' acceptance and engagement: An overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1285-1298.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Batalla-Bejerano, Joan & Trujillo-Baute, Elisa & Villa-Arrieta, Manuel, 2020. "Smart meters and consumer behaviour: Insights from the empirical literature," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska & Katarzyna Byrka, 2019. "Determinants of the Willingness to Energy Monitoring by Residential Consumers: A Case Study in the City of Wroclaw in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Haben, Stephen & Arora, Siddharth & Giasemidis, Georgios & Voss, Marcus & Vukadinović Greetham, Danica, 2021. "Review of low voltage load forecasting: Methods, applications, and recommendations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    5. Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Ali, Mohammad M. & Hong, Tao & Hyndman, Rob J. & Porter, Michael D. & Syntetos, Aris, 2022. "Forecasting for social good," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1245-1257.
    6. Belton, Cameron A. & Lunn, Peter D., 2020. "Smart choices? An experimental study of smart meters and time-of-use tariffs in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    8. Freier, Julia & von Loessl, Victor, 2022. "Dynamic electricity tariffs: Designing reasonable pricing schemes for private households," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Jonathan Roth & Jayashree Chadalawada & Rishee K. Jain & Clayton Miller, 2021. "Uncertainty Matters: Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting for Residential Smart Meter Prediction, Segmentation, and Behavioral Measurement and Verification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
    10. de Hoog, Julian & Abdulla, Khalid, 2019. "Data visualization and forecast combination for probabilistic load forecasting in GEFCom2017 final match," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1451-1459.
    11. Janusz Sowinski, 2021. "The Impact of the Selection of Exogenous Variables in the ANFIS Model on the Results of the Daily Load Forecast in the Power Company," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, January.
    12. van der Meer, D.W. & Shepero, M. & Svensson, A. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity consumption, photovoltaic power generation and net demand of an individual building using Gaussian Processes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 195-207.
    13. Huber, Julian & Dann, David & Weinhardt, Christof, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasts of time and energy flexibility in battery electric vehicle charging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    14. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
    15. Niamir, Leila & Filatova, Tatiana & Voinov, Alexey & Bressers, Hans, 2018. "Transition to low-carbon economy: Assessing cumulative impacts of individual behavioral changes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 325-345.
    16. Stefano Bianchi & Allegra De Filippo & Sandro Magnani & Gabriele Mosaico & Federico Silvestro, 2021. "VIRTUS Project: A Scalable Aggregation Platform for the Intelligent Virtual Management of Distributed Energy Resources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-31, June.
    17. Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska & Katarzyna Byrka & Jakub Serek, 2020. "How to Foster the Adoption of Electricity Smart Meters? A Longitudinal Field Study of Residential Consumers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-19, September.
    18. Cansino, José M. & Román, Rocío & Colinet, María J., 2018. "Two smart energy management models for the Spanish electricity system," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 60-72.
    19. Lu, Xiaoxing & Li, Kangping & Xu, Hanchen & Wang, Fei & Zhou, Zhenyu & Zhang, Yagang, 2020. "Fundamentals and business model for resource aggregator of demand response in electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    20. Hany Habbak & Mohamed Mahmoud & Khaled Metwally & Mostafa M. Fouda & Mohamed I. Ibrahem, 2023. "Load Forecasting Techniques and Their Applications in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-33, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:20:p:13642-:d:949314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.