IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i2p345-d477712.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of the Selection of Exogenous Variables in the ANFIS Model on the Results of the Daily Load Forecast in the Power Company

Author

Listed:
  • Janusz Sowinski

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Czestochowa University of Technology, Al. Armii Krajowej 17, 42-200 Czestochowa, Poland)

Abstract

Forecasting of daily loads is crucial for the Distribution System Operators (DSO). Contemporary short-term load forecasting models (STLF) are very well recognized and described in numerous articles. One of such models is the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), which requires a large set of historical data. A well-recognized issue both for the ANFIS and other daily load forecasting models is the selection of exogenous variables. This article attempts to verify the statement that an appropriate selection of exogenous variables of the ANFIS model affects the accuracy of the forecasts obtained ex post. This proposal seems to be a return to the roots of the Polish econometrics school and the use of the Hellwig method to select exogenous variables of the ANFIS model. In this context, it is also worth asking whether the use of the Hellwig method in conjunction with the ANFIS model makes it possible to investigate the significance of weather variables on the profile of the daily load in an energy company. The functioning of the ANFIS model was tested for some consumers exhibiting high load randomness located within the area under supervision of the examined power company. The load curves featuring seasonal variability and weekly similarity are suitable for forecasting with the ANFIS model. The Hellwig method has been used to select exogenous variables in the ANFIS model. The optimal set of variables has been determined on the basis of integral indicators of information capacity H. Including an additional variable, i.e., air temperature, has also been taken into consideration. Some results of ex post daily load forecast are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Janusz Sowinski, 2021. "The Impact of the Selection of Exogenous Variables in the ANFIS Model on the Results of the Daily Load Forecast in the Power Company," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:2:p:345-:d:477712
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/2/345/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/2/345/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aman Ullah & Huansha Wang, 2013. "Parametric and Nonparametric Frequentist Model Selection and Model Averaging," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 1(2), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Prado, Francisco & Minutolo, Marcel C. & Kristjanpoller, Werner, 2020. "Forecasting based on an ensemble Autoregressive Moving Average - Adaptive neuro - Fuzzy inference system – Neural network - Genetic Algorithm Framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. Taylor, James W., 2010. "Triple seasonal methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 139-152, July.
    4. Arpita Samanta Santra & Jun-Lin Lin, 2019. "Integrating Long Short-Term Memory and Genetic Algorithm for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-11, May.
    5. Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
    6. Taylor, James W. & Buizza, Roberto, 2003. "Using weather ensemble predictions in electricity demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 57-70.
    7. Rae-Jun Park & Kyung-Bin Song & Bo-Sung Kwon, 2020. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Algorithm Using a Similar Day Selection Method Based on Reinforcement Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-19, May.
    8. Arora, Siddharth & Taylor, James W., 2016. "Forecasting electricity smart meter data using conditional kernel density estimation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 47-59.
    9. Danxiang Wei & Jianzhou Wang & Kailai Ni & Guangyu Tang, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network Combined with Fuzzy Time Series for Energy Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-38, September.
    10. Mirasgedis, S. & Sarafidis, Y. & Georgopoulou, E. & Lalas, D.P. & Moschovits, M. & Karagiannis, F. & Papakonstantinou, D., 2006. "Models for mid-term electricity demand forecasting incorporating weather influences," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 208-227.
    11. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    12. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    13. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
    14. Amevi Acakpovi & Alfred Tettey Ternor & Nana Yaw Asabere & Patrick Adjei & Abdul-Shakud Iddrisu, 2020. "Time Series Prediction of Electricity Demand Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-14, August.
    15. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    16. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    17. J W Taylor, 2003. "Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 799-805, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Feras Alasali & Khaled Nusair & Lina Alhmoud & Eyad Zarour, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Electricity Demand and Load Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Pedro M. R. Bento & Jose A. N. Pombo & Maria R. A. Calado & Silvio J. P. S. Mariano, 2021. "Stacking Ensemble Methodology Using Deep Learning and ARIMA Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-21, November.
    3. Elzbieta Szychta & Leszek Szychta, 2021. "Collective Losses of Low Power Cage Induction Motors—A New Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, March.
    4. Man-Wen Tian & Khalid Alattas & Fayez El-Sousy & Abdullah Alanazi & Ardashir Mohammadzadeh & Jafar Tavoosi & Saleh Mobayen & Paweł Skruch, 2022. "A New Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting by Type-2 Fuzzy Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, April.
    5. Chang, Chih-Hao & Chen, Zih-Bing & Huang, Shih-Feng, 2022. "Forecasting of high-resolution electricity consumption with stochastic climatic covariates via a functional time series approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    6. Grzegorz Dudek, 2021. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Neural Networks with Pattern Similarity-Based Error Weights," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, May.
    7. Stefan Ungureanu & Vasile Topa & Andrei Cristinel Cziker, 2021. "Analysis for Non-Residential Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Machine Learning and Statistical Methods with Financial Impact on the Power Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-26, October.
    8. Rafał Trzaska & Adam Sulich & Michał Organa & Jerzy Niemczyk & Bartosz Jasiński, 2021. "Digitalization Business Strategies in Energy Sector: Solving Problems with Uncertainty under Industry 4.0 Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tulin Guzel & Hakan Cinar & Mehmet Nabi Cenet & Kamil Doruk Oguz & Ahmet Yucekaya & Mustafa Hekimoglu, 2023. "A Framework to Forecast Electricity Consumption of Meters using Automated Ranking and Data Preprocessing," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 179-193, September.
    2. Feras Alasali & Khaled Nusair & Lina Alhmoud & Eyad Zarour, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Electricity Demand and Load Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, January.
    3. Chabouni, Naima & Belarbi, Yacine & Benhassine, Wassim, 2020. "Electricity load dynamics, temperature and seasonality Nexus in Algeria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    4. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & Mohcine Bakhat, 2009. "A new approach to estimating tourism-induced electricity consumption," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2009/6, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra").
    5. Saxena, Harshit & Aponte, Omar & McConky, Katie T., 2019. "A hybrid machine learning model for forecasting a billing period’s peak electric load days," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1288-1303.
    6. Oscar Trull & Angel Peiró-Signes & J. Carlos García-Díaz, 2019. "Electricity Forecasting Improvement in a Destination Using Tourism Indicators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-16, July.
    7. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    8. Christopher Bennett & Rodney A. Stewart & Junwei Lu, 2014. "Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables and Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecast Models for Residential Low Voltage Distribution Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-23, April.
    9. Shao, Zhen & Chao, Fu & Yang, Shan-Lin & Zhou, Kai-Le, 2017. "A review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 123-136.
    10. Bakhat, Mohcine & Rosselló, Jaume, 2011. "Estimation of tourism-induced electricity consumption: The case study of Balearics Islands, Spain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 437-444, May.
    11. Konrad Bogner & Florian Pappenberger & Massimiliano Zappa, 2019. "Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting the Energy Consumption/Production and Its Uncertainties Driven by Meteorological Observations and Forecasts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    12. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
    13. Pielow, Amy & Sioshansi, Ramteen & Roberts, Matthew C., 2012. "Modeling short-run electricity demand with long-term growth rates and consumer price elasticity in commercial and industrial sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 533-540.
    14. Goutam Dutta & Krishnendranath Mitra, 2017. "A literature review on dynamic pricing of electricity," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(10), pages 1131-1145, October.
    15. Óscar Trull & J. Carlos García-Díaz & Alicia Troncoso, 2019. "Application of Discrete-Interval Moving Seasonalities to Spanish Electricity Demand Forecasting during Easter," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    16. Ali K k & Erg n Y kseltan & Mustafa Hekimo lu & Esra Agca Aktunc & Ahmet Y cekaya & Ay e Bilge, 2022. "Forecasting Hourly Electricity Demand Under COVID-19 Restrictions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 73-85.
    17. Tyralis, Hristos & Karakatsanis, Georgios & Tzouka, Katerina & Mamassis, Nikos, 2017. "Exploratory data analysis of the electrical energy demand in the time domain in Greece," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 902-918.
    18. Mauro Bernardi & Francesco Lisi, 2020. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Zonal Electricity Prices and Demand Using Heteroscedastic Models: The IPEX Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-34, November.
    19. Arora, Siddharth & Taylor, James W., 2018. "Rule-based autoregressive moving average models for forecasting load on special days: A case study for France," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 259-268.
    20. Bennett, Christopher J. & Stewart, Rodney A. & Lu, Jun Wei, 2014. "Forecasting low voltage distribution network demand profiles using a pattern recognition based expert system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 200-212.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:2:p:345-:d:477712. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.