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Modeling short-run electricity demand with long-term growth rates and consumer price elasticity in commercial and industrial sectors

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  • Pielow, Amy
  • Sioshansi, Ramteen
  • Roberts, Matthew C.

Abstract

This paper specifies and estimates state-level models of short- and long-term electricity demand in the United States. The short-term model predicts hourly load based on weather and calendar inputs. The long-term model estimates interannual demand, and includes population, prices, and gross state product as predictors. These models are combined to incorporate the short- and long-term trends in electricity consumption when generating forecasts of diurnal patterns into the future. Finally, the authors investigate the effects of short-run price elasticities of demand. The short-term model is shown to be within 95% accuracy of actual levels in out-of-sample tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Pielow, Amy & Sioshansi, Ramteen & Roberts, Matthew C., 2012. "Modeling short-run electricity demand with long-term growth rates and consumer price elasticity in commercial and industrial sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 533-540.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:46:y:2012:i:1:p:533-540
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2012.07.059
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