A smooth transition periodic autoregressive (STPAR) model for short-term load forecasting
AbstractThis paper compares the short-term load performance of several forecasting models, including a new class of nonlinear models known as smooth transition periodic autoregressive (STPAR) models. A model building procedure is developed for the STPAR model, along with a linearity test against smooth transition periodic autoregressive behaviour. The predictive ability of the STPAR model is evaluated against alternative load forecasting models using load data from the Australian electricity market.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 24 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
Time series Periodic and autoregressive models STAR model Load forecast;
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