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Simulating Brazilian Electricity Demand Under Climate Change Scenarios

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  • Trotter, Ian Michael
  • Féres, José Gustavo
  • Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland
  • de Hollanda, Lavínia Rocha

Abstract

Long-term load forecasts are important for planning the development of the electric power infrastructure. We present a methodology for simulating ensembles of daily long-term load forecasts for Brazil under climate change scenarios. For certain applications, it is important to choose an ensemble approach in order to estimate the (conditional) probability distribution of the load. High temporal resolution is necessary in order to preserve key features of the electricity demand that are particularly important in the face of increasing penetration of intermittent renewable power generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Trotter, Ian Michael & Féres, José Gustavo & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & de Hollanda, Lavínia Rocha, 2015. "Simulating Brazilian Electricity Demand Under Climate Change Scenarios," Working Papers in Applied Economics 208689, Universidade Federal de Vicosa, Departamento de Economia Rural.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ufvdwp:208689
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.208689
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    Cited by:

    1. Trotter, Ian M. & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & Féres, José Gustavo & Hollanda, Lavinia, 2016. "Climate change and electricity demand in Brazil: A stochastic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 596-604.

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    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty;
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