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Downsizing the jet: A forecast of economic effects of increased automation in aviation

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  • Zakharenko, Roman
  • Luttmann, Alexander

Abstract

We develop a theory of optimal aircraft size, where the cost of the flight crew is the primary factor driving the use of larger aircraft, while passenger utility is primary factor driving the use of smaller aircraft. After fitting our model to U.S. data, we perform a counterfactual experiment where the minimum crew size requirement is relaxed from two pilots to one, a policy currently being discussed by aviation experts. Implications are derived for the number of aircraft demanded and its size distribution, demand for pilots, passenger traffic, flight frequency, and where new nonstop service may be introduced.

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  • Zakharenko, Roman & Luttmann, Alexander, 2023. "Downsizing the jet: A forecast of economic effects of increased automation in aviation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 25-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:170:y:2023:i:c:p:25-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2023.02.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aircraft size; Non-scalable cost; Aviation market equilibrium; Single-pilot aircraft;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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