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The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

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  • Bloom, David E.
  • Cafiero-Fonseca, Elizabeth T.
  • McGovern, Mark E.
  • Prettner, Klaus
  • Stanciole, Anderson
  • Weiss, Jonathan
  • Bakkila, Samuel
  • Rosenberg, Larry

Abstract

This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’s EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 23.03trillion for China and USD 4.58trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory, and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.

Suggested Citation

  • Bloom, David E. & Cafiero-Fonseca, Elizabeth T. & McGovern, Mark E. & Prettner, Klaus & Stanciole, Anderson & Weiss, Jonathan & Bakkila, Samuel & Rosenberg, Larry, 2014. "The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 100-111.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:4:y:2014:i:c:p:100-111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.08.003
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    2. Annarita BALDANZI & Alberto BUCCI & Klaus PRETTNER, 2016. "The Effects of Health Investments on Human Capital and R&D-Driven Economic Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2016-17, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    3. Zheng Shen & Xiaodong Zheng & Yiwen Tan, 2019. "The Spillover Effects of Spousal Chronic Diseases on Married Couples’ Labour Supply: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Shamal Shivneel Chand & Baljeet Singh & Sanjesh Kumar, 2020. "The economic burden of non-communicable disease mortality in the South Pacific: Evidence from Fiji," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Mark E. McGovern, 2016. "Progress and the Lack of Progress in Addressing Infant Health and Infant Health Inequalities in Ireland during the 20th Century," Economics Working Papers 16-05, Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast.
    7. Mark E. McGovern & Aditi Krishna & Victor M. Aguayo & S.V. Subramanian, 2017. "A Review of the Evidence Linking Child Stunting to Economic Outcomes," CHaRMS Working Papers 17-03, Centre for HeAlth Research at the Management School (CHaRMS).
    8. Bloom, David E. & Chen, Simiao & Kuhn, Michael & McGovern, Mark E. & Oxley, Les & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "The economic burden of chronic diseases: Estimates and projections for China, Japan, and South Korea," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    9. Baldanzi, Annarita & Bucci, Alberto & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Children’S Health, Human Capital Accumulation, And R&D-Based Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 651-668, April.
    10. Simiao Chen & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner & David E Bloom, 2018. "The macroeconomic burden of noncommunicable diseases in the United States: Estimates and projections," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, November.
    11. Alberto Bucci & Lorenzo Carbonari & Monia Ranalli & Giovanni Trovato, 2019. "Health and Development," CEIS Research Paper 470, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Mar 2021.
    12. Hiroaki Hayakawa, 2017. "Health-conscious consumer behavior," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, April.

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