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The Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons

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  • David E. Bloom
  • Elizabeth T. Cafiero
  • Mark E. McGovern
  • Klaus Prettner
  • Anderson Stanciole
  • Jonathan Weiss
  • Samuel Bakkila
  • Larry Rosenberg

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012-2030. Our estimates are derived using WHO’s EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 27.8 trillion for China and USD 6.2 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domains are cardiovascular disease and mental health, followed by respiratory disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher income and older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s Best Buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19335.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19335

Note: AG HC HE LS
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  2. David E. Bloom & Dan Chisholm & Eva Jane-Llopis & Klaus Prettner & Adam Stein & Andrea Feigl, 2011. "From Burden to "Best Buys": Reducing the Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Disease in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," PGDA Working Papers, Program on the Global Demography of Aging 7511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. #HEJC papers for September 2013
    by academichealtheconomists in The Academic Health Economists' Blog on 2013-08-31 23:01:38
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Cited by:
  1. Arokiasamy, Perianayagam & Uttamacharya, Uttamacharya & Jain, Kshipra, 2013. "Multiple Chronic Diseases and Their Linkages with Functional health and Subjective Wellbeing among adults in the low-middle income countries: An Analysis of SAGE Wave1 Data, 2007/10," MPRA Paper 54914, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2014.

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