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Agricultural price transmission: China relationships with world commodity markets

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  • Arnade, Carlos
  • Cooke, Bryce
  • Gale, Fred

Abstract

This paper explores the transmission of the international prices agricultural commodities to the domestic Chinese market over a period of time when China was both opening up to world markets and constantly adjusting it agricultural policies in response to changing world market conditions. An ECM model is estimated which distinguishes between short and long run transmission and enables account for the impact that past price variability has on the transmission of prices. The model specification also allows us to test whether China can influence world commodity prices and to distinguish between the transmission of expected and unexpected price changes to China. We find significant differences in transmission across commodities, with Chinese soybeans and soymeal and chicken price being the most integrated with world prices and rice being the least integrated. We also find that short run transmission of prices are much lower than long run price transmissions, suggesting that stabilization policies may delay--but not eliminate—transmission of price shocks for many commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnade, Carlos & Cooke, Bryce & Gale, Fred, 2017. "Agricultural price transmission: China relationships with world commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 28-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:7:y:2017:i:c:p:28-40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2017.07.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Amrinder Singh & Tarun Kumar Soni, 2021. "Price Transmission in Cotton Futures Market: Evidence from Three Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, September.
    3. T.G. Saji, 2018. "Price transmission for natural rubber: India integration with world markets," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(617), W), pages 155-168, Winter.
    4. Ahmad Ridha & Raja Masbar & Aliasuddin Aliasuddin & Vivi Silvia, 2022. "Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Cocoa Supply Chain in Indonesia," Economia agro-alimentare, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 24(1), pages 1-21.
    5. Liwen Ling & Dabin Zhang & Shanying Chen & Amin W. Mugera, 2020. "Can online search data improve the forecast accuracy of pork price in China?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 671-686, July.
    6. Ziqi Yin & Jianzhai Wu, 2021. "Spatial Dependence Evaluation of Agricultural Technical Efficiency—Based on the Stochastic Frontier and Spatial Econometric Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-12, March.
    7. Sun, Ting-Ting & Su, Chi-Wei & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "How does trade policy uncertainty affect agriculture commodity prices?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Njegovan Nikola & Simin Mirela Tomaš, 2020. "Inflation and Prices of Agricultural Products," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 58(2), pages 203-217, June.
    9. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan, 2022. "The impact of trade policy on soybean futures in China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1152-1163, June.
    10. Zhang, Youwang & Li, Chogguang & Xu, Yuanyuan & Li, Jian, 2020. "An attribution analysis of soybean price volatility in China: global market connectedness or energy market transmission?," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 22(1), July.
    11. Bensch, Gunther & Kaestner, Kathrin & Vance, Colin, 2023. "Pass-through of cocoa prices along the supply chain: What's left for farmers in Côte D'Ivoire?," Ruhr Economic Papers 1035, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Pradita Nareswari & Sigit S. Wibowo, 2020. "Global and Local Commodity Prices: A Further Look at the Indonesian Agricultural Commodities," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 65-76.
    13. Kai Liu & Atsushi Koike & Yueying Mu, 2020. "Price Risks and the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Futures and Spot Prices of Soybean, Wheat and Corn," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 76-88, March.
    14. Ridha, Ahmad & Masbar, Raja & Aliasuddin & Silvia, Vivi, 2022. "Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Cocoa Supply Chain in Indonesia," Economia agro-alimentare / Food Economy, Italian Society of Agri-food Economics/Società Italiana di Economia Agro-Alimentare (SIEA), vol. 24(1), May.
    15. Kuamvi Sodji, 2023. "Estimating the link between trade uncertainty, pandemic uncertainty and food price stability in Togo: New evidence for an asymmetric analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 1113-1134, May.
    16. Gustavo Barboza Martignone & Karl Behrendt & Dimitrios Paparas, 2022. "Price Transmission Analysis of the International Soybean Market in a Trade War Context," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-22, August.
    17. Xiaokang Hou & Shah Fahad & Peipei Zhao & Beibei Yan & Tianjun Liu, 2022. "The Trilogy of the Chinese Apple Futures Market: Price Discovery, Risk-Hedging and Cointegration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, October.
    18. Mukhlis MUKHLIS & Raja MASBAR & Sofyan SYAHNUR & M. Shabri Abd. MAJID, 2020. "Dynamic Causalities Between World Oil Price And Indonesia’S Cocoa Market: Evidence From The 2008 Global Financial Crisis And The 2011 European Debt Crisis," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 217-233, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Q11; Q13; Q17; N55; F15; C31; China; Price transmission; Market integration; Agricultural policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • N55 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Asia including Middle East
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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