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Do people feel less at risk? Evidence from disaster experience

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  • Gao, Ming
  • Liu, Yu-Jane
  • Shi, Yushui

Abstract

Past studies typically have focused on whether people perceive more rare risk after experiencing catastrophic disasters. We show that people can also feel less risk with unexpected lucky disaster experience. By exploring a novel identification strategy based on households’ expectations, we find that households perceive less (more) risk when they experience disasters that have lower (higher) fatalities than what was expected. This opposite experience effect of rare disasters is substantial. A one standard deviation increase in the negative (positive) experience shock is associated with a 1.71% decrease (a 1.31% increase) in the life insurance-to-portfolio ratio. We discuss three possible mechanisms to account for our empirical findings: incomplete information learning, salience theory, and change in risk preferences.

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  • Gao, Ming & Liu, Yu-Jane & Shi, Yushui, 2020. "Do people feel less at risk? Evidence from disaster experience," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 866-888.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:138:y:2020:i:3:p:866-888
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.06.010
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    3. Henry Hyun-Do Kim & Kwangwoo Park, 2021. "Impact of Environmental Disaster Movies on Corporate Environmental and Financial Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-35, January.
    4. Yin, Zhichao & Yan, Yu & Chen, Xirong & Liu, Taixing, 2022. "Earthquake and household energy consumption – Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    5. Dong, Zhiqiang & Guo, Yuchen & Zhao, Jun, 2022. "How people respond to risk after being exposed to the risk of loss: An experimental study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    6. Hua, Renhai & Liu, Qingfu & Tse, Yiuman & Yu, Qin, 2023. "The impact of natural disaster risk on the return of agricultural futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Luo, Deming & Yao, Zhongwei & Zhu, Yanjian, 2022. "Bubble-crash experience and investment styles of mutual fund managers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Zhifeng Liu & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Peng-Fei Dai, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on the stock market crash risk in China," Papers 2009.08030, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    9. Liu, Zhifeng & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Dai, Peng-Fei, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on the stock market crash risk in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Rao, Yonghui & Hu, Zijiang & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2021. "Do managers hedge disaster risk? Extreme earthquake shock and firm innovations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
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    15. Kong, Dongmin & Lin, Zhiyang & Wang, Yanan & Xiang, Junyi, 2021. "Natural disasters and analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disaster experiences; Risk perceptions; Incomplete information learning; Salience theory; Risk preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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