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The impact of COVID-19 on the stock market crash risk in China

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Zhifeng
  • Huynh, Toan Luu Duc
  • Dai, Peng-Fei

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the stock market crash risk in China. For this purpose, we first estimated the conditional skewness of the return distribution from a GARCH with skewness (GARCH-S) model as the proxy for the equity market crash risk of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We then constructed a fear index for COVID-19 using data from the Baidu Index. Based on the findings, conditional skewness reacts negatively to daily growth in total confirmed cases, indicating that the pandemic increases stock market crash risk. Moreover, the fear sentiment exacerbates such risk, especially with regard to the impact of COVID-19. In other words, when the fear sentiment is high, the stock market crash risk is more strongly affected by the pandemic. Our evidence is robust for the number of daily deaths and global cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Zhifeng & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Dai, Peng-Fei, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on the stock market crash risk in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:57:y:2021:i:c:s0275531921000404
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101419
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Fear sentiment; Investor sentiment; Stock market crash risk; Skewness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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