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A contraction for sovereign debt models

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  • Aguiar, Mark
  • Amador, Manuel

Abstract

Using a dual representation, we show that the Markov equilibria of the one-period-bond Eaton and Gersovitz (1981) incomplete markets sovereign debt model can be represented as a fixed point of a contraction mapping, providing a new proof of the uniqueness and existence of equilibrium in the benchmark sovereign debt model. The arguments can be extended to incorporate re-entry probabilities after default when the shock process is iid. Our representation of the equilibrium bears many similarities to an optimal contracting problem. We use this to argue that commitment to budget rules has no value to a benevolent government. We show how the introduction of long-term bonds breaks the link to the constrained planning problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Aguiar, Mark & Amador, Manuel, 2019. "A contraction for sovereign debt models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 842-875.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:183:y:2019:i:c:p:842-875
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2019.08.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2012. "Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium," Working Paper 12-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Hugo Hopenhayn & Iván Werning, 2019. "Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 423-462, March.
    3. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Gita Gopinath, 2009. "Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(1), pages 1-31.
    4. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2011. "Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 651-697.
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    10. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2012. "Maturity, Indebtedness, and Default Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2674-2699, October.
    11. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
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    15. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    16. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2020. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2783-2818, September.
    17. Ayres, João & Navarro, Gaston & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Teles, Pedro, 2018. "Sovereign default: The role of expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 803-812.
    18. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    19. Bloise, Gaetano & Polemarchakis, Herakles & Vailakis, Yiannis, 2017. "Sovereign debt and incentives to default with uninsurable risks," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), September.
    20. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    21. Laura Alfaro, 2016. "Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default," 2016 Meeting Papers 209, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sewon Hur & César Sosa-Padilla & Zeynep Yom, 2021. "Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises," Globalization Institute Working Papers 406, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 27 Feb 2024.
    2. Ma, Qingyin & Stachurski, John & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2022. "Unbounded dynamic programming via the Q-transform," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Gaetano Bloise, 2020. "Unique Markov Equilibrium Under Limited Commitment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 721-751, May.
    4. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo & Roch, Francisco, 2022. "Numerical fiscal rules for economic unions: The role of sovereign spreads," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    5. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Stelios Fourakis, 2020. "On the Welfare Losses from External Sovereign Borrowing," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 163-194, March.
    6. Damián Pierri & Hernán D. Seoane, 2022. "An Ergodic Theory of Sovereign Default," Working Papers 206, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    7. Gaetano Bloise & Yiannis Vailakis, 2022. "On sovereign default with time-varying interest rates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 211-224, April.
    8. Qingyin Ma & John Stachurski, 2019. "Dynamic Optimal Choice When Rewards are Unbounded Below," Papers 1911.13025, arXiv.org.
    9. Charles Serfaty, 2022. "Sovereign Debt and International Trade," Working papers 901, Banque de France.
    10. Yasin Kür¸sat Önder & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Jose Villegas, 2023. "Debt Moratorium: Theory and Evidence," Borradores de Economia 1253, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Hong Chen & Murray Zed Frank, 2022. "Equilibrium Defaultable Corporate Debt and Investment," Papers 2202.05885, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; Uniqueness of equilibria; Existence of equilibria; Eaton-Gersovitz; One period bonds; Time-consistency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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