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On sovereign default with time-varying interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Gaetano Bloise

    (Yeshiva University)

  • Yiannis Vailakis

    (University of Glasgow)

Abstract

We extend and refine Aguiar and Amador [3]'s contraction approach to Eaton and Gersovitz [14]'s sovereign debt model. In particular, we encompass time-varying interest rates and growth. We show that, when long-term interest rates exceed growth, equilibrium is unique and can be computed via contraction mapping. The method unifies separate branches of literature, showing that the contraction property is the reflection of previous arbitrage arguments based on replication, inspired by Bulow and Rogoff [13]. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Gaetano Bloise & Yiannis Vailakis, 2022. "On sovereign default with time-varying interest rates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 211-224, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:20-268
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2021.03.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Hugo Hopenhayn & Iván Werning, 2019. "Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 423-462, March.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1225-1298.
    3. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19.
    4. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March.
    5. Lars Peter Hansen & José A. Scheinkman, 2009. "Long-Term Risk: An Operator Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(1), pages 177-234, January.
    6. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
    7. Aguiar, Mark & Amador, Manuel, 2019. "A contraction for sovereign debt models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 842-875.
    8. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    9. Bloise, Gaetano & Polemarchakis, Herakles & Vailakis, Yiannis, 2017. "Sovereign debt and incentives to default with uninsurable risks," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), September.
    10. Juan Passadore & Juan Xandri, 2019. "Robust Predictions in Dynamic Policy Games," 2019 Meeting Papers 1345, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Auclert, Adrien & Rognlie, Matthew, 2016. "Unique equilibrium in the Eaton–Gersovitz model of sovereign debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 134-146.
    12. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    13. Charalambos D. Aliprantis & Kim C. Border, 2006. "Infinite Dimensional Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, edition 0, number 978-3-540-29587-7, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign default; Time-varying interest rates; Uniqueness of equilibrium; Contraction mapping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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