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Coordination on saddle-path solutions: the eductive viewpoint--linear multivariate models

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  • Evans, George W.
  • Guesnerie, Roger

Abstract

We examine local strong rationality (LSR) in multivariate models with both forward-looking expectations and predetermined variables. Given hypothetical common knowledge restrictions that the dynamics will be close to those of a specified minimal state variable solution, we obtain eductive stability conditions for the solution to be LSR. In the saddlepoint stable case the saddle-path solution is LSR provided the model is structurally homogeneous across agents. However, the eductive stability conditions are strictly more demanding when heterogeneity is present, as can be expected in multisectoral models. Heterogeneity is thus a potentially important source of instability even in the saddlepoint stable case.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 124 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 202-229

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:124:y:2005:i:2:p:202-229

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622869

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  1. Moulin, Herve, 1979. "Dominance Solvable Voting Schemes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1137-51, November.
  2. Chiappori, Pierre Andre & Guesnerie, Roger, 1991. "Sunspot equilibria in sequential markets models," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: W. Hildenbrand & H. Sonnenschein (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 1683-1762 Elsevier.
  3. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
  4. Gauthier, St phane, 2003. "Dynamic Equivalence Principle In Linear Rational Expectations Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 63-88, February.
  5. Pearce, David G, 1984. "Rationalizable Strategic Behavior and the Problem of Perfection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 1029-50, July.
  6. Evans George W. & Guesnerie Roger, 1993. "Rationalizability, Strong Rationality, and Expectational Stability," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 632-646, October.
  7. D. B. Bernheim, 2010. "Rationalizable Strategic Behavior," Levine's Working Paper Archive 514, David K. Levine.
  8. repec:cup:macdyn:v:7:y:2003:i:1:p:63-88 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Reichlin, Pietro, 1986. "Equilibrium cycles in an overlapping generations economy with production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 89-102, October.
  10. Guesnerie, R., 1989. "An Exploration of the Eductive Justifications of the Rational Expectations Hypotbesis," DELTA Working Papers 89-24, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  11. R. Guesnerie, 2002. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 439-480, March.
  12. Evans, George, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-33, November.
  13. Stéphane Gauthier, 2002. "Determinacy and Stability under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria," Post-Print hal-00731065, HAL.
  14. George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie, 1999. "Coordination on saddle path solutions: the eductive viewpoint," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-7, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 15 May 2001.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Roger Guesnerie & Pedro Jara-Moroni, 2009. "Expectational coordination in simple economic contexts: concepts and analysis with emphasis on strategic substitutabilities," Working Papers halshs-00574957, HAL.
  2. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.
  3. McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "E-stability vis-a-vis determinacy results for a broad class of linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1376-1391, April.
  4. Pedro Jara-Moroni, 2008. "Rationalizability in games with a continuum of players," Working Papers halshs-00587863, HAL.
  5. George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie & Bruce Mcgough, 2010. "Eductive stability in real business cycle models," Working Papers halshs-00565011, HAL.
  6. Yuting Bai & Tatiana Kirsanova, 2013. "Infrequent Fiscal Stabilization," Working Papers 2013_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  7. Gliksberg, Baruch, 2010. "The Role of Consumption-Labor Complementarity as a Source of Macroeconomic Instability," MPRA Paper 24816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2009. "Heterogeneous adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena," DiMaD Working Papers 2009-01, Dipartimento di Matematica per le Decisioni, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze.
  9. Richard Dennis & Tatiana Kirsanova, 2013. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures with Discretionary Policymaking," Working Papers 2013_02, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

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